Feasibility of green ammonia trading via pipelines and shipping: Cases of Europe, North Africa, and South America

Abstract

Ammonia is a key chemical for the agriculture and chemical industries, and a potential future marine fuel. Potential growth in ammonia demand further highlights the importance of ammonia production defossilisation to comply with climate goals. Widely available renewable resources and declining costs of solar photovoltaics and wind power enable the production of green e-ammonia at many locations and potential exports to countries with less optimal resources and other restrictions. This paper aims to compare the cost of imported e-ammonia to Germany, Finland, and Spain from regions with excellent renewable resources, Morocco and Chile, to the cost of local production, and to quantify potential economic savings due to trading. Transportation costs are calculated in this study with techno-economic parameters reported in detail to assess their impact on final import costs, and to allow comparison of shipping costs to pipeline transmission costs over various distances. Pipeline imports from Morocco were found to be significantly higher in cost compared to imports by sea from Chile and Morocco or local production. Imports from Chile were found to be economically feasible for Germany and Finland, with import costs 10–33% lower than domestic e-ammonia production in 2030–2050. Imports to Spain may be attractive in 2030s, but, after 2040, local solar resources enable local e-ammonia production costs at the same or lower cost as imported e-ammonia. Ammonia trading in the future may depend on access to the sea. Other factors such as creation of jobs, additional revenues, and energy security concerns may also impact e-ammonia trade.