Feasibility analysis for the integration of solar photovoltaic technology to the Colombian residential sector through system dynamics modeling

Abstract

This document presents cost analysis through system dynamics (SD) focused on the Colombian residential sector for Building Integrated Photovoltaic Systems (BIPVS). The study considers the socioeconomic strata of Colombia. Strata are a classification of houses used in Colombia to charge different utility fees according to the residents’ purchasing power. Studies were conducted to cover 100% of households’ electric charge, calculating the price per energy unit through the Levelized cost of energy technique, which associates investment and maintenance costs based on the amount of energy generated during the equipment’s lifetime. Also, grid parity and savings percentages in each stratum were calculated for each city under study. Main results reveal that the highest grid parity index is found in Stratum 1 for Bogotá, Cali, and Medellín at values of 0.90, 0.86, and 0.96, respectively. For Barranquilla, the highest index is reported for Stratum 2 at a value of 0.54. The highest savings rate is reported for Strata 5 and 6 in Barranquilla at 71% and 72%, respectively. Using SD, the analysis of the avoided CO2 emissions revealed that, by 2050, the residential sectors of Bogotá, Cali, Medellín, and Barranquilla would stop releasing 7,106.51 tons of CO2, 2,636.11 tons of CO2, 5,262.14 tons of CO2, and 3,291.52 tons of CO2, respectively, due to the use of photovoltaic (PV) solar energy in the residential sector.