FD-SP: A Method for Predicting Cascading Failures of Inter-domain Routing System

Abstract

Cascading failures are a severe threat to inter-domain routing system, while little has been done to detect and report impacts. To address the problem, we analyze the process of cascading failure in the inter-domain routing system, and find that it is constructed by two stages as key nodes/links failure and related nodes/links cascading failure. The first stage is shorter as the onset time is seconds' level, while the second stage is longer as the onset time is at least one hour. Then a two-phase detection method FD-SP mechanism is put forward, the first stage of which adopts real-time detection methods to identify the initial failure nodes and links and the second stage uses DF2-CFM model to predict the damage range of cascade failure before true propagation. To validate FD-SP, it is applied to security events containing cascading failures and the results of FD-SP are compared with the datasets collected from RIPE during security events. Using the number of Update messages received by nodes as the metric, the maximum relative error is 1.69 and the average one is 0.92. As our prediction is a little large than reality, the false negative rate of FD-SP is low.