Abstract
This study develops a fault-source-based seismic hazard model for the Leech River Valley Fault (LRVF) and the Devil’s Mountain Fault (DMF) in southern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. These faults pose significant risks to the provincial capital, Victoria, due to their proximity and potentially large earthquake magnitudes. To evaluate the effects of including these faults in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and city-wide seismic loss estimation for Victoria, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis is conducted by considering different fault rupture patterns and different earthquake magnitude models, as well as variations in their parameters. The aim is to assess the relative contributions of the LRVF-DMF system to the overall seismic hazard and risk in Victoria at different return periods. The consideration of the LRVF-DMF system as a potential seismic source increases the seismic risk assessment results by 10 to 30%, especially at the high return period levels. The sensitivity analysis results highlight the importance of determining the slip rate for the fault deformation zone and of specifying the earthquake magnitude models (e.g., characteristic versus truncated exponential models). From urban seismic risk management perspectives, these nearby faults should be considered critical earthquake scenarios.
Highlights
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments and their uncertainty quantification are essential for making informed decisions regarding seismic risk mitigation actions and for enhancing disaster preparedness [1,2]
For the seismic hazard modelling, we focus on the fault rupture modelling of the Leech River Valley Fault (LRVF)-Devil’s Mountain Fault (DMF) system based on the stochastic source approach [21] and the earthquake magnitude modelling based on the seismic moment rate balancing approach [17]
In the seismic hazard curve plots (Figure 10a,c,e), two combined curves are shown; the C+I+S curve is based on the result without including the LRVF-DMF system, whereas the C+I+S+F curve includes the seismic hazard contributions from the LRVF-DMF system
Summary
Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments and their uncertainty quantification are essential for making informed decisions regarding seismic risk mitigation actions and for enhancing disaster preparedness [1,2]. An earthquake catastrophe model offers an effective computational platform for calculating the economic loss due to earthquake disasters and has become an indispensable tool for the insurance and reinsurance industry [3]. Effective seismic risk management, informed by sound disaster risk reduction strategies, will safeguard people and their assets and promote the sustainable development of the built environment. Vancouver and Victoria, which are the economic and political centers of the province, are exposed to significant seismic risks [6,7,8], originating from three major sources: shallow crustal earthquakes, deep inslab earthquakes, and megathrust Cascadia subduction earthquakes. Goda et al [9] conducted a city-wide seismic risk assessment of single-family wooden houses in Victoria by considering a comprehensive building-by-building exposure model, the national seismic hazard model developed by the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) [10], and seismic fragility functions, based on rigorous nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures and ground-motion record selection [11]
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