Abstract
PurposeUnderstanding farmers’ perceptions of how the climate is changing is vital to anticipating its impacts. Farmers are known to take appropriate steps to adapt only when they perceive change to be taking place. This study aims to analyse how African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers perceive climate change in three different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) in Kenya, identify the main differences in historical seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature trends between the zones, discuss differences in farmers’ perceptions and historical trends and analyse the impact of these perceived changes and trends on yields, weeds, pests and disease infestation of AIVs.Design/methodology/approachData collection was undertaken in focus group discussions (FGD) (N = 211) and during interviews with individual farmers (N = 269). The Mann–Kendall test and regression were applied for trend analysis of time series data (1980-2014). Analysis of variance and least significant difference were used to test for differences in mean rainfall data, while a chi-square test examined the association between farmer perceptions and ACZs. Coefficient of variation expressed as a percentage was used to show variability in mean annual and seasonal rainfall between the zones.FindingsFarmers perceived that higher temperatures, decreased rainfall, late onset and early retreat of rain, erratic rainfall patterns and frequent dry spells were increasing the incidences of droughts and floods. The chi-square results showed a significant relationship between some of these perceptions and ACZs. Meteorological data provided some evidence to support farmers’ perceptions of changing rainfall. No trend was detected in mean annual rainfall, but a significant increase was recorded in the semi-humid zone. A decreasing maximum temperature was noted in the semi-humid zone, but otherwise, an overall increase was detected. There were highly significant differences in mean annual rainfall between the zones. Farmers perceived reduced yields and changes in pest infestation and diseases in some AIVs to be prevalent in the dry season. This study’s findings provide a basis for local and timely institutional changes, which could certainly help in reducing the adverse effects of climate change.Originality/valueThis is an original research paper and the historical trends, farmers’ perceptions and effects of climate change on AIV production documented in this paper may also be representative of other ACZs in Kenya.
Highlights
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been identified as one of the regions that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (CC) (Bryan et al, 2013; IPCC, 2014)
These results are in agreement with the findings of numerous studies from Africa, which report that farmers have perceived an increase in temperatures (Babatolu and Akinnubi, 2016; Limantol et al, 2016; Bobadoye et al, 2016; Sanogo et al, 2016; Mutunga et al, 2017; Mkonda and He, 2017; Fadina and Barjolle, 2018)
There are two cropping seasons in Kenya that coincide with bimodal rainfall regimes in which long rains fall between March and May (MAM) and the short rains between October and December (OND) [Famine and Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET, 2013)]
Summary
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been identified as one of the regions that are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change (CC) (Bryan et al, 2013; IPCC, 2014). Research shows that the impact of CC on agricultural production is likely to intensify in future because of an expected further increase in temperature This increase is predicted to cause a yield decline of 14 per cent (rice), 22 per cent (wheat) and 5 per cent (maize) in SSA. The consequence of this is increased poverty and vulnerability of the people who primarily depend on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods (IPCC, 2014; Kabubo-Mariara and Kabara, 2015; Adhikari et al, 2015)
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