Farmers’ perceptions and spatial statistical modeling of most systematic LULC transitions: Drivers and livelihood implications in Awash Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

LULC studies have produced many methodological approaches that quantify and describe LULC change patterns and drivers. This study was conducted to quantify the major LULC transition and its drivers through the combination of a spatial statistical model with surveying the local understanding of possible drivers of LULC changes driving forces in the Awash-Awash River Sub-Basin. Landsat data from 1986 to 2018 were analyzed to understand the various magnitudes of LULC transitions. The study revealed that the LULC in the sub-basin is under a considerable change in pattern, structure, and extent. The amount of LULC that experienced loss and gains over the period indicates that the gains throughout a sub-basin's bare land, cultivated land, and water bodies are related to the loss in shrub and bushland, forest, and woodland. The study revealed that about 52% of the area experienced different forms of LULC transition and the remaining 48% of the area was persistent. The transition from shrub and bushland to cultivated land was identified as one of the strong signals of LULC transition in the sub-basin. The spatial explicit regression model result indicated that drivers such as elevation, the cosine of aspect, and distance to major river were significantly and positively associated with the transition from shrub and bushland to cultivated land. While, variables like slope, sine of aspect, distance to town center, major road were negatively associated with this particular LULC transition. The socio-economic survey result showed that growth in population, cultivated land expansion, deforestation and overgrazing, urbanization, infrastructure expansion, and government laws and regulations were perceived as drivers of LULC change in the study area. Therefore, it would be vital to implement cohesive and viable land use planning, that can considerably contribute to the country's broad economic development.