Abstract
Farmers and farm workers are critical to the secure supply of food, yet this population is potentially at high risk to acquire COVID-19. This study estimates the prevalence of COVID-19 among farmers and farmworkers in the United States by coupling county-level data on the number of farm workers relative to the general population with data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. In the 13 month period since the start of the pandemic (from March 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021), the estimated cumulative number of COVID-19 cases (deaths) was 329,031 (6,166) among agricultural producers, 170,137 (2,969) among hired agricultural workers, 202,902 (3,812) among unpaid agricultural workers, and 27,223 (459) among migrant agricultural workers. The cases amount to 9.55%, 9.31%, 9.39%, and 9.01% of all U.S. agricultural producers, hired workers, unpaid workers, and migrant workers, respectively. The COVID-19 incidence rate is significantly higher in counties with more agricultural workers; a 1% increase in the number of hired agricultural workers in a county is associated with a 0.04% increase in the number of COVID-19 cases per person and 0.07% increase in deaths per person. Although estimated new cases among farm workers exhibit similar trends to that of the general population, the correlation between the two is sometimes negative, highlighting the need to monitor this particular population that tends to live in more rural areas. Reduction in labor availability from COVID-19 is estimated to reduce U.S. agricultural output by about $309 million.
Highlights
COVID-19 brought about significant disruptions to the food supply chain [1]
The first category utilized is that of agricultural producer–a category that is often interpreted as a “farmer.” The number of agricultural producers is elicited with the question, “In 2017, how many men and women were involved in decisions for this operation? Exclude hired workers unless they were a hired manager or family member.”
The emergence of COVID-19 has highlighted the vulnerability of the food supply resulting from losses in farm and agricultural labor
Summary
COVID-19 brought about significant disruptions to the food supply chain [1]. The spike in demand at retail grocery following shutdown orders in March 2020 led to stockouts and empty shelves [2]. The food industry worked to re-allocate output designed and packaged for food service to retail grocery. While some farmers had to plow under crops or dump milk when demand from food service evaporated, others experienced heightened demand, and there was added stress and work at all levels of the food supply chain [3, 4]. While many employees have been able to work remotely during the pandemic, those working in farm, food manufacturing, and grocery were deemed essential [5].
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