Abstract
Agriculture is one of most vulnerable sectors in the country, with the imminent intensification of global warming effects. In this paper, we attempt to assess the adaptation of Macedonian crop farmers to the impact of climate change. An alternative specification of the Ricardian model is adopted by using a composite aridity index to capture the re-sponse of farm returns to temperatures and precipitations. The econometric results indicate the significance of winter and summer season weather-related variables and confirm the non-linearity of the climatic function in relation to the farmers’ economic results and adaptation capacity. The farm returns are highly sensitive to different climate change scenarios and tend to decrease unless adequate adaptation and mitigation measures take place, both at micro and macro levels.
Highlights
Global warming and climate change are at this point a recognized threat and a top priority on policy makers’ agendas (Angelini et al [1])
We present the specification of the Ricardian model assessing the relationship between the farm returns and the key climatic and control variables, followed by impact analysis scenarios and underlining the limitations
The Ricardian approach is a widely applied and popular analytical model when assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture
Summary
Global warming and climate change are at this point a recognized threat and a top priority on policy makers’ agendas (Angelini et al [1]). Climate change will influence all spheres of living to a certain extent, but unquestionably, it will have a deep effect on agricultural systems through higher temperatures, greater crop water demand, more variable rainfalls, and weather extremes (Sutton et al [2]). The country is classified in the Continental South agro-climatic zone in Europe, where it is expected that climate change brings potential changes in the precipitation pattern consisting of increased rainfall in winter and decreased water availability in summer (Iglesias et al [4]). The annual temperature cycle is divided into a warm summer and relatively cold winter connected with transitional seasons of spring and autumn. Another important characteristic of the Macedonian climate is the uneven spatial distribution of precipitations throughout the country, by seasons and years. There are periods of droughts, followed by high intensity rainfalls, which contribute to soil erosion and land degradation (MEPP [7])
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