Abstract
This study aims to determine the factors that influence rice imports in Indonesia. The data used in this study are time series in the period 1999-2017. The analytical model used in this study is the Multiple Linear Regression Model and the ARDL Model. The results showed that are that together the Inflation, Exchange Rate and Retail Prices variables had a positive and significant effect on Rice Imports. While partially Inflation and retail prices each had a positive and significant effect on the Import of Rice. There is no influence exchange rate and negative effect on Rice Imports. From the results of the ARDL model it can be seen that the long-run and short-run inflation variables had no significant and negative effect on rice imports and the long-run exchange rate variable had a significant and negative effect on rice imports. While in the short run the exchange rate variable had no effect on rice imports, while the retail price variable in the short and long run had a significant and positive effect on rice imports in Indonesia.
Highlights
From the results of the ARDL model it can be seen that the long-run and short-run inflation variables had no significant and negative effect on rice imports and the long-run exchange rate variable had a significant and negative effect on rice imports
While in the short run the exchange rate variable had no effect on rice imports, while the retail price variable in the short and long run had a significant and positive effect on rice imports in Indonesia
6. Pada jangka panjang variabel Nilai Tukar Rupiah memiiki hubungan negatif dan signifikan terhadap Impor Beras Indonesia
Summary
Indonesia merupakan negara yang semakin sempit, sehingga produksi padi akan sebahagian besar penduduknya bermata berkurang, sedangkan permintaan akan pencaharian sebagai petani. Sebagai kebutuhan bahan pangan masyarakat Indonesia padi di Indonesia tidak pernah surut baik dalam mengkonsusmsi maupun dalam memproduksi, melainkan kian bertambah dari tahun ke tahun sesuai dengan bertambahnya penduduk. Indonesia merupakan penghasil beras terbesar didunia dan berada pada urutan ketiga dari 10 negara yang menghasilkan beras terbesar didunia menurut FAO, dengan jumlah produksi hingga 75,6 juta. Kebutuhan beras sangat tinggi menyebabkan Indonesia masih harus mengimpor beras.Hal ini juga disebabkan karena jumlah penduduk yang semakin bertambah setiap tahunnya.Seiring bertambahnya jumlah penduduk. Impor beras Indonesia dari tahun ke tahun selalu terjadi peningkatan ini merupakan suatu kontroversi, dimana hasil produksi padi juga selalu meningkat di Indonesia. Pada bahagian keempat membahas hasil dan pembahasan dan akhirnya ditutup dengan kesimpulan dan saran pada bahagian kelima
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