FAKTOR – FAKTOR DOMESTIK DAN EKSTERNAL YANG MEMPENGARUHI HARGA STYRENE BUTADIENE LATEX (SBL) DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This study investigates the causal links between price of styrene butadiene latex (SBL) another domestic & external variables such as price of Styrene Butadiene Latex in China (SBLC), Crude Oil Price (OIL), Coated Paper Price in Indonesia (CPPI), supply (SUPP), demand (DMD), Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), price of styrene (STY) and price of butadiene (BTD) during the period 1995 – 2011 on the basis of monthly. Furthermore, the Johansen VAR-based cointegration technique was applied to examine the sensitivity of price of SB Latex to changes in China styrene butadiene latex price (SBLC), crude oil price (OIL), Indonesia coated paper price (CPPI), supply, demand, Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), price of styrene and price of butadiene in the long run on while the short-run dynamics was checked by using a vector error correction model (VECM) include unit root test, pairwise Granger causality test,impulse response function (IRF) and forecast variance decomposition (FVD). Results from Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) or unit root test showed evidence stationarities whole variables of first difference (I). The Granger pairwise causality test revealed a bilateral causality reach 38.89 %, directional reach 22.22 % from Johansen test found out seven cointegration of price of SBL. Keywords: Cointegration, Granger Causality, VECM, demand SBL and Crude Oil Price.