Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post‐1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

Abstract

AbstractImpacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post‐1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large‐scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.