Factors predisposing forests to canopy collapse in the southern Ruahine Range, New Zealand

Abstract

The introduced brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula Kerr is recognised as the primary agent of defoliation and stand-level dieback in New Zealand broadleaved forests (except Nothofagus). The distribution and magnitude of canopy collapse of forest in 33 500 ha of the southern Ruahine Range, New Zealand was mapped from 1995 polychrome aerial photographs. Relationships between canopy collapse and forest type, altitude, aspect and slope were analysed using generalised additive models. Canopy composition was the strongest factor predicting the extent of collapse and modification: broadleaved-conifer forest is most affected, with 68–87% of the area of six such forest types replaced by scrub-low forest and tree-fernland; and surprisingly, three Nothofagus-dominated types have up to 28% of their former area now in shrubland or tussock grassland. The susceptibility to collapse of Nothofagus forest was positively correlated with distance to non- Nothofagus forest types. Subalpine scrub, which is dominated by species not favoured by possums, has increased in area by 32%, replacing former upper montane forest. Physiographic factors were much less important in multiple regressions. However, in general terms, forests on steeper slopes, in the upper montane-subalpine zone, and on warm westerly and northerly aspects were more susceptible to collapse and modification than elsewhere. It is postulated that possums were the primary agent responsible for collapse of non- Nothofagus broadleaved forest, and that red deer Cervus elaphus and goats Capra hircus were responsible for inhibiting canopy replacement by eliminating regeneration in forest understoreys. Secondary effects, such as outbreaks of defoliating insects and mechanical damage from wind also contributed to canopy collapse and were possibly triggered by possums opening up the canopy. Collapse of Nothofagus canopies possibly results from a breakdown in the recruitment phase of stand turnover, by the smothering effects of deer-induced shrubs and tussock grasses on seedlings and saplings.