Factors influencing embodied carbon emissions of China's building sector: An analysis based on extended STIRPAT modeling

Abstract

As China urbanizes, the embodied carbon emissions (EC) of its building sector continue to rise; analyzing the influencing factors (IFs) of building EC can indicate a direction for China’s greenhouse gas mitigation strategy. Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model and comprehensively considering the characteristics of the building construction sector, this study identifies the IFs of building EC in terms of demand and supply and adopts six indicators to construct three extended analysis models. Both the direct and the indirect EC of the building sector are explored. The results show that six identified factors all have significantly positive impacts. Among them, the building construction area and indirect emission intensity have the greatest influence on EC and indirect EC. For changes in direct EC, total factor productivity and energy intensity are also non-ignored IFs. In addition, the analysis shows that technical factors have a double-edged effect and that rebound effects do exist in the building construction sector. Therefore, controlling building scale, reducing building material supply-side emission, improving technology and preventing rebound are keys to alleviating building EC.