Abstract
Background: Subjective survival probabilities are affected by individual-specific judgment and vary by factors known to differentiate actual mortality.
Highlights
It is well known that some people are more optimistic than others (Lyubomirsky 2001), a fact usually reflected in their expectations, including their future survival
CONTRIBUTION The contribution of this study is the grouping of sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle characteristics according to the subjective survival probabilities’ direction and consistency with general population mortality and actual mortality patterns
The distributions of subjective and objective survival probabilities are presented in the Appendix (Figure A-1 shows the distribution of subjective survival probabilities (SSPs) whereas Figure A-2 shows the distribution of OSPs)
Summary
It is well known that some people are more optimistic than others (Lyubomirsky 2001), a fact usually reflected in their expectations, including their future survival. Subjective survival probabilities are affected by individual-specific judgment and vary by factors known to differentiate actual mortality. The main challenge for assessing the accuracy of survival predictions is the unavailability of longitudinal studies, which would cover a population for a long time period. To overcome this practical problem, some researchers have used panel surveys and the actual mortality of the respondents between waves. Demographic Research: Volume 42, Article 2 objective survival probabilities (OSP) for respondents of Wave 2 in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). KutluKoc and Kalwij (2017) and Van Solinge and Henkens (2018) conclude that the subjective survival probabilities of Dutch respondents predict actual mortality
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