Subjective survival expectations and morbidity patterns of European citizens aged 50 years and older: a cross-sectional and longitudinal perspective based on SHARE data

Abstract

Individuals vary their perceptions towards own survival over their lifetime. Some are consistently more optimists, and they believe that the chances of own survival are high. The systematic investigation of the characteristics of both optimist and pessimist individuals will reveal the underlying reasons for differences in survival beliefs. The results of this Thesis show that there are common factors affecting self-reported subjective survival probabilities. On the one hand, factors such as a large number of children, higher socio-economic status, frequent physical activity, frequent consumption of fruits or vegetables and eggs or legumes as well as better quality of life are associated with higher subjective survival, younger biological age and longevity. On the other hand, factors such as poor self-rated health, more limitations in Activities of Daily Living, a larger number of chronic diseases, poor memory, poor writing skills and depression are associated with lower subjective survival, older biological age and higher mortality. One of the research objectives of this Thesis is the development of a method for the quantification of ‘Self-perceived age’. ‘Self-perceived age’ incorporates survival information from the general population life tables as well as the self-reported subjective survival probabilities. The results of the last part of this Thesis indicate clearly that Subjective Survival Probabilities and ‘Self-perceived age’ are both strong and independent predictors of mortality. This implies that both Subjective Survival Probabilities and ‘Self-perceived age’ include ‘survival information’ important for predicting actual survival. Finally, the patterns of ‘Self-perceived age’ are also comparable to the patterns of Biological Age and Subjective Age. The introduction of the new concept of ‘Force of subjective mortality’ allows the calculation of subjective survival probabilities which correspond to shorter time horizons. For instance, the average SHARE Wave 6 respondent reports a subjective survival probability which corresponds to the next 14 years. However, in order to assess the explanatory power of subjective survival probabilities on actual mortality, the subjective survival probabilities for the next SHARE Wave (i.e. 2 years) are required. These probabilities can be estimated using the ‘Force of subjective mortality’. The results indicate clearly that both Subjective Survival Probabilities which correspond to the next two years (i.e. SHARE Wave 7) and ‘Self-perceived age’ are both strong and independent predictors of mortality and include information important for predicting actual survival.