Factors for Measuring Photovoltaic Adoption from the Perspective of Operators

Felipe Moraes do Nascimento,Fernando de Souza Savian,Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk,Taís Bisognin Garlet,José Renes Pinheiro,Carlos Ramos

doi:10.3390/su12083184

Abstract

The diffusion of photovoltaic distributed generation is relevant for addressing the political, economic, and environmental issues in the electricity sector. However, the proliferation of distributed generation brings new administrative and operational challenges for the sustainability of electric power utilities. Electricity distributors operate in economies of scale, and the high photovoltaic penetration means that these companies have economic and financial impacts, in addition to influencing the migration of other consumers. Thus, this paper aims to systematically identify and evaluate critical factors and indicators that may influence electricity distributors in predicting their consumers’ adoption of photovoltaic technology, which were subjected to the analysis of 20 industry experts. Results show that the cost of electricity, generation capacity, and cost of the photovoltaic systems are the most relevant indicators, and it is possible to measure a considerable part of them using the internal data of the electricity distributors. The study contributes to the understanding of the critical factors for the forecast of the adoption of consumers to distributed photovoltaic generation, to assist the distribution network operators in the decision making, and the distribution sustainability. Also, it establishes the theoretical, political, and practical implications for the Brazilian scenario and developing countries.

Highlights

Electricity is a determining factor for the quality of life in modern society [1], and it is the primary source for most industrial activities [2]
Electricity rates are determined by the regulatory agency ANEEL. These tariffs are divided into tariff groups, which represent the different types of consumers, consisting of an essential indicator for electricity distributors since the variation in electricity tariffs related to different kinds of consumers influences the economic analysis of investment in distributed photovoltaic generation projects [97]
The results of the analysis of these indicators show that photovoltaic agents are optimistic about the prospects for the diffusion and adoption of photovoltaic technology, especially with the reduction of costs, the increased financial attractiveness of such projects, and the potential contribution for the electricity sector

Summary

Introduction

Electricity is a determining factor for the quality of life in modern society [1], and it is the primary source for most industrial activities [2]. The undeniable need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the transition to cleaner electricity generation has led to an unavoidable requirement for new regulations and mechanisms to promote the growth of renewable energy [6] This movement seeks an economy focused on sustainability, intending to achieve energy security and environmental protection [7], instead of relying on sources difficult access and exhaustible. In this context, the Brazilian electric sector is undergoing a transformation marked by the entry of mini and micro distributed generation years after the perception of these changes in Europe, making the diffusion and the competitive substitution of energy technologies substantially affect the dynamic evolution of the structure of the electrical sector [8]. With the increase in the capture of photovoltaic energy, there has been an increase in negative impacts on the revenue of utility companies in several countries, such as the United States [12,13,14] and Europe [15,16]

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Conclusion