Factors determining regional grain exports

Abstract

The value of grain exports is determined by the size of the surplus arising in the regions, which is formed, in turn, as an excess of domestic production over domestic consumption (including export to other regions). However, under state regulation of the grain market, the surplus is not the only factor in grain exports. The authors have formed three- and eight-factor models that determine the value of regional grain exports not only directly from the value of the regional surplus but also the coverage of the provincial surplus by the tariff quota, the degree of actual development of the tariff quota (three-factor model), compliance with food security requirements, the availability of stocks with storage units, the degree of surplus, satisfaction of needs with actual stocks, as well as compliance with the annual according to the available storage capacities (eight-factor model). Based on the indicators of potential and actual regional grain exports, it is proposed to calculate the value of the reserve of regional grain exports.