Factors closely associated with prognosis of Ebola virus disease

Abstract

Introduction : clinical and laboratory data was collected and analyzed from patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Jui government hospital in Freetown, Sierra Leone, where patients with EVD were received and/or treated from Oct 1, 2014 to Jun 6, 2015. Methods : EVD was confirmed by quantitative RT-PCR assays detecting serum Ebola virus (EBOV). Two hundred and eight-five patients with confirmed EVD were included in the study, and were followed up till the endpoint (recovery or death). Results : Among the 293 lab-confirmed EVD cases in Jui hospital, 153 recovered and 140 died, with an overall survival rate of 52.22%. Patients at the age of 6 or younger had a lower survival rate (37.5%).79.86% of the non-survivors died within 7 days after admission, 63.7% of the survivors turned serum EBOV negative 3 weeks after admission. High serum viral load was found to be predictive of patient’ non-survival outcome as indicated by the ROC curve analysis. Multivariate analyses showed that serum viral load, confusion, abdominal pain, conjunctivitis, and vomiting were factors independently associated with the outcomes of EVD patients. Conclusion : most non-survival EVD patients died within 1 week after admission and patients at the age of 6 or younger had a lower survival rate. Survival patients turned negative for serum EBOV in 1-4 weeks after admission. Factors such as high serum viral load, confusion, abdominal pain, vomiting and conjunctivitis were associated with poor prognosis for EVD patients.