Factors Affecting The Number Of Domestic Flights In Indonesia During Covid-19 Pandemic Using SARIMAX Method

Abstract

Indonesia, which consists of thousands of large and small islands, relies heavily on-air transportation to support mobility between regions. As many as 80% of Indonesia's total air transportation passengers are domestic flight passengers. This shows how vital domestic flights are in Indonesia's air transportation system. However, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had an impact that resulted in a decrease in the number of domestic flights in Indonesia. Therefore, an analysis is needed to determine the factors that affect the number of domestic flights in Indonesia. This study uses the SARIMAX method, a time series regression with the addition of seasonal factors and other variables or exogenous factors that significantly affect the model to improve the model's accuracy. Several exogenous variables are considered, including the number of operating civil aviation airports, positive daily cases of COVID-19, calendar effects during Eid al-Fitr and New Year's Day, and social restriction policies. The results showed that the number of operating airports one week before Eid al-Fitr, one week during Eid al-Fitr, one week before New Year, and Emergency PPKM significantly influenced the number of domestic flights. These variables offer pivotal insights into the influence of external factors on domestic flight patterns, exerting significant impacts on passenger travel behavior and subsequently influencing domestic flight volume. The integration of these variables in the SARIMAX model allows for a comprehensive analysis of the complex dynamics influencing domestic air travel in Indonesia. The best SARIMAX model obtained is SARIMAX (1,1,1)(4,1,1)7 with a MAPE value of 5.35% and a coefficient of determination is 97%.