Abstract
Interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, many medical students do not have the required background in coding or mathematics to engage optimally in this approach. System dynamics is a methodology for implementing mathematical models as easy-to-understand stock-flow diagrams. Remarkably, creating stock-flow diagrams is the same process as creating the equivalent differential equations. Yet, its visual nature makes the process simple and intuitive. We demonstrate the simplicity of system dynamics by applying it to epidemic models including a model of COVID-19 mutation. We then discuss the ease with which far more complex models can be produced by implementing a model comprising eight differential equations of a Chikungunya epidemic from the literature. Finally, we discuss the learning environment in which the teaching of the epidemic modeling occurs. We advocate the widespread use of system dynamics to empower those who are engaged in infectious disease epidemiology, regardless of their mathematical background.
Highlights
Compartmental modeling of infectious disease epidemic behavior in terms of differential equations depends on so-called dynamical or mechanistic epidemiology, as distinct from classical epidemiology [1, 2]
We propose the adoption of system dynamics in epidemiology education
Dynamical methods in infectious disease epidemiology are important tools in the epidemiologist’s armamentarium, many students don’t have an adequate background in coding and differential equations to engage in dynamical modeling
Summary
Compartmental modeling of infectious disease epidemic behavior in terms of differential equations depends on so-called dynamical or mechanistic epidemiology, as distinct from classical epidemiology [1, 2]. A SIRS model is shown in Figure 3 (top), where the recovered people gradually lose immunity at a rate that is proportional to R with a constant α, i.e., immunity loss rate = αR This waning immunity requires a modification of two of the stocks because αR becomes an inflow to S and an outflow from R. This is superimposed on a graph of the incidence rate produced by Yakob and Clements [21] and field data from the epidemic [20, 21]. Assessment involves theory and a laboratory task and students have frequently been required to perform epidemic modeling in the laboratory aspect of the examination
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