Extreme weather impact on carbon-neutral power system operation schemes: A case study of 2060 Sichuan Province

Abstract

The impact of increasingly frequent and intense climate change events on power supply and consumption has become a concern for many countries. This study evaluated the impact of extreme weather on the power system economy and security by conducting an empirical case study of the Sichuan power network to address uncertainty attributed to different extreme weather events under carbon neutrality scenarios. First, our paper proposed a CNPSSO model of four seasonal typical days by jointly considering the regional hourly disparities of load curves and renewable power output curves. Then, the model creatively introduced the effects of extreme weather on the power supply and demand curves based on various scenario analyses. The most cost-effective output strategy using various generation technologies was provided based on optimization models. Finally, Sichuan Province, a hydropower-dominated province was selected as an empirical case study. The results indicate that extreme weather significantly affects the hourly operational and dispatching schemes of Sichuan's power system. Compared to the "Normal weather scenario”, hydropower's share plummets from 83.3 % to 46.1 %, while pumped storage surges 7.1 billion kWh in summer in extremely hot and dry weather. Imported electricity rises by 24.4 %, 30.5 % and 24.8 % in dry scenario, extremely hot and dry scenario, and extremely cold scenario, respectively. Furthermore, extreme weather increases carbon emissions (mainly from thermal power and imported electricity) and costs. Specifically, when juxtaposed against normal weather, extreme drought, extreme heat drought and extremely cold lead to respective increases in carbon emissions by 32.9 %, 33.5 %, and 12.3 %. Regarding the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), "Extremely dry scenario”, "Extremely hot and dry scenario”, and "Extremely cold scenario” drive up the LCOE by 7.2 %, 9.2 %, and 4.2 %, respectively.