Abstract
ABSTRACTThis paper presents a statistical analysis of storm surge in Hangzhou Bay, where storm surge is known taking place frequently. This study utilises measurement data taken the period of 1974–2006. The Pearson-III-Pareto distribution model was used first to fit with extreme values based on these measurement data and was then compared with Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson-III, Pareto distribution functions for estimations of extreme storm surge values correspondingly to 100-, 200-, 400-, 500-, 700- and 1000-year return periods. The predicted values of storm surge elevation in the 1000-year return period of the new model are 2.179% higher than the Weibull distribution and 3.546% lower than the Pearson-III distribution. Expectedly, the proposed Pearson-III-Pareto distribution is a more reasonable for presenting the statistical characteristic of extreme values of storm surge.
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