Abstract
The extreme climatic events are increasing because of climate change impacts and thus likely to influence global agricultural production. Regional assessments on various abiotic factors and its influences on biological entities in diverse geographic locations are needed for understanding uncertainties. Rice grain yields and daily temperature data from 1971–2015 were used to quantify extreme temperature events in different regions of Bangladesh and their impacts on rice yields growing in three seasons of Bangladesh. The regional averaged trends in temperature extremes were consistent with global warming. The occurrence summer days (SU), tropical nights (TR), warm days (TX90), and nights (TN90) and a warm spell duration indicator (WSDI) increased by 0.388 (P0.00001), 0.103 (P0.19), 0.520 (P0.00000), 0.269 (P0.0004), 0.147 (P0.0001), days yr-1, respectively. The frequencies of cold days (TX10) and nights (TN10), and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) showed decreasing trends of −0.143 (P0.0006), −0.254 (P0.001), and −0.04 (P0.227) day yr-1, respectively. Sharp increases of TR and TN90 indices took place in 1985–2000. Principal component analysis showed that SU, TX90, TN90, WSDI, TX10, TN10 and diurnal temperature range (DTR) were the main influencing factors for seasonal variations in rice yield. Warm and cold nights played a vital role in reducing rice yields. It can be concluded that extreme temperature events will be increased in Bangladesh and thus necessitating heat and cold tolerant rice varieties with appropriate management options for sustained future rice production in Bangladesh.
Highlights
Global food demand is increasing, while natural resources are decreasing in many countries to support such process
Our analyses indicate that decrease in TN90 and TN10 will play a vital role in reducing Boro rice yield in future
We have determined the magnitudes of 11 extreme temperature indices for Bangladesh and their relationships were investigated with grain yields of rice for three different growing seasons
Summary
Global food demand is increasing, while natural resources are decreasing in many countries to support such process. Cool days and nights are likely to decrease, but heavy precipitation events in many mid-latitude regions are likely to increase (Wang et al, 2012) Such events, rare, will increase vulnerability in agriculture and natural ecosystems (Kharin et al, 2007; Marengo et al, 2009) and would cause significant damage to crop yields; increase soil erosion and flooding in different regions of the world (Ren et al, 2011; Liu et al, 2013). Since climate change impacts are visible in this part of the world, an assessment on extreme temperature events, especially on its intensity, frequency and duration and its relationship with rice productivity was evaluated to construct future ecology for rice production sustainably
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