Extreme rainfall, farmer vulnerability, and labor mobility—Evidence from rural China

Abstract

The recurrent occurrence of extreme weather events poses a significant threat to agricultural production, food security, and sustainable economic development. Understanding farmers' adaptive responses to cope with these challenges is pivotal for informing and implementing effective climate resilience policies. This study utilizes the Spatial Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess rainfall patterns and applies fixed effects methods to analyze extreme rainfall shocks' impact on rural households, using panel data from China's 2006–2015 National Rural Fixed Point Survey. Below are the results. Firstly, both drought and rainstorm shocks negatively affect agricultural yield and income, highlighting farmers' vulnerability to extreme rainfall events. Secondly, farmers respond to these shocks by reallocating labor from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors or migrating to urban areas, with these labor mobility patterns typically being temporary. Thirdly, there's notable heterogeneity linked to household affluence. Less affluent rural households experienced more pronounced declines in yield and income, compelling higher migration rates. Collectively, our findings shed light on how Chinese rural households strategically adjust their labor decisions to respond to extreme rainfall shocks through inter-sectoral and inter-regional labor mobility.