Abstract
Abstract. This study assessed the extreme rainfall and temperature changes over Mono river basin by the end of 21st century under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulations of eight regional climate models (RCMs) provided by Africa-CORDEX program were considered. The maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall were analyzed. Two groups of indices were analyzed. The first group consists of frequency indices: maximum number of consecutive dry days and wet days. The second group is intensity indices: five-day maximum rainfall and simple daily intensity index. These variables were calculated at annual and seasonal scales. Changes from the baseline period 1971–2000 were computed for far future 2071–2100. As result, almost all the RCMs considered predicted a decrease of the rainfall and increase of maximum and minimum temperatures over most parts of the Mono basin, particularly in the south. Declining mean monthly precipitation and irregular rainy seasons at all scales were exhibited by most of the models. Simple daily intensity and five-day maximum rainfall are projected to decrease by the majority of the used models. As for dry and wet sequences, the RCMs showed an increase of the consecutive dry days and a decrease of wet days.
Highlights
A global view of climate change impacts is important to quantify the aggregated effects in a given region since large scale processes can influence driving forces at sub regional or mesoscale
There is one rainy season which extends from April to October
A new multi-source dataset is used in this paper to analyze changes in extreme temperature and rainfall events over the Mono basin on the far future (2071–2100) and the historical period (1971–2000)
Summary
A global view of climate change impacts is important to quantify the aggregated effects in a given region since large scale processes can influence driving forces at sub regional or mesoscale. Several studies (Aguilar et al, 2013; IPCC, 2013; Masson et al, 1999) showed that impacts of climate extremes are mostly depending on the spatial scale considered and vary from a region to another, from country to country and even from one local area to another within the same country. For Africa, many previous studies have investigated extreme events and have showed that changes in extreme temperature and precipitation are contrasting (Yèkambèssoun et al, 2017.). Other studies indicated an increase in extreme rainfall events, in Sahel (Nicholson and Webster, 2007) and a decrease in Nigeria (Oguntundé et al, 2011) and (Easterling et al, 2000), Guinea Conakry (Aguilar et al, 2009), in eastern Niger (Ozer et al, 2009), in Ivory-Coast (Soro et al, 2014), in Benin (Yèkambèssoun et al, 2017) and in South Africa (Mason et al, 1999). The understanding and characterizing climate variability at reduced scales are so fundamental to understanding the impacts of cli-
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