Abstract
ABSTRACTThe satellite ozone data comprising The New Zealand National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) total ozone database version 2.7, total ozone by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) spectrophotometer on the Aura platform, and the ozone mixing ratios by SBUV/2 measurements on The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) platforms are analysed for ozone variability over the sunlit part of the Northern Hemisphere polar region. An extended area, with unusually low ozone values, is observed in a two-month period beginning in mid February 2011. The total area with extremely depleted total ozone reached the maximum at the end of March 2011, equal to ~11×106 km2. The area is even larger in the lower/mid stratosphere. A multiple regression model is proposed to attribute the polar total ozone variability to various chemical and dynamical ozone forcings. The model reproduces the ozone loss in early 2011 and the overall picture of the ozone long-term changes. The extreme ozone decline in 2011 could be attributed to the long-lasting period with low stratospheric temperature (<195 K), weaker than the normal Brewer-Dobson circulation, and the Arctic Oscillation in a strong positive phase. A deficit of total ozone in the following summer months (June–July–August), after the total ozone decline in March, was predicted and supported by later OMI observations.
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