Extreme migratory connectivity and apparent mirroring of non-breeding grounds conditions in a severely declining breeding population of an Afro-Palearctic migratory bird

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Understanding the distribution of breeding populations of migratory animals in the non-breeding period (migratory connectivity) is important for understanding their response to environmental change. High connectivity (low non-breeding population dispersion) may lower resilience to climate change and increase vulnerability to habitat loss within their range. Very high levels of connectivity are reportedly rare, but this conclusion may be limited by methodology. Using multiple tracking methods, we demonstrate extremely high connectivity in a strongly declining, peripheral breeding population of a long-distance migrant, the Common Nightingale in the UK. Non-breeding population dispersion is lower than for previously tracked populations of this and other species and likely lower than can usually be detected by light-level geolocation, the main tracking method for small bodied species. Extremely low levels of population mixing were also detected, so any impacts on this population on the non-breeding grounds are unlikely to be shared with more distant breeding populations, corresponding to the observed patterns of European population change. According to a species distribution model using independent field data, this population’s non-breeding grounds had lower suitability than others and likely declined before the period we were able to assess. These results support hypotheses that climatic and habitat-related deterioration of non-breeding grounds contributes to population declines in peripheral and high-connectivity breeding populations of long-distance migrants, including the one studied here.