Extreme July precipitation and its consequences on Crna Trava municipality, Serbia

Miloš Ostojić,Renata Fekete,Milica Radaković,Marijana Petrović

doi:10.5937/zbdght1902112p

Abstract

Even though climate variability, geology, and human activity are main triggers of landslides, based on earlier research, precipitation is considered the most important natural factor responsible for soil erosion in the landslide context. In this study landslide activation has been correlated with precipitation in least developed municipality of Crna Trava located in South-east Serbia. The purpose of this study is analyzing the precipitation in thirteen surrounding settlements: Vranje, Leskovac, Babušnica, Bela Palanka, Pirot, Dimitrovgrad, Kalna, Kriva Feja, Vladičin Han, Vučje, Vlasotince, Grdelica, Brestovac and finding its correlation to landslide occurrences. Precipitation for seven decades (period 1946-2017) has been interpolated by IDW method in the software ArcMap 10.5 and correlated to Crna Trava slope map. Potential locations of landslides were determined and compared to the recent landslides which occurred in July in 2018, in Bankovci village. Potential years for landslide activation were compared to calculated values of the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), the Modified Fournier Index (MFI), and Lang Aridity Index (AILang). The case study was done based on fieldwork which happened in a period from 20 to 26 of July 2018 in the village of Bankovci. On the 25 of July landslides were activated because of the extreme weather conditions, which affected wider region in Central and South-east Serbia: 100 liters of rain fell during the three-hour period. Habitants were interviewed about their memories on extreme floods and landslides in Crna Trava municipality, and the years they mentioned are in well agreement with our results of the extreme precipitation events.

Highlights

Landslides are connotated as one of the biggest problems of modern world and natural hazards of 21st century
Potential years for landslide activation were calculated by using The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), The Modified Fournier Index (MFI), and Lang Aridity Index (AILang)
Several methods have been used to determine past extreme July precipitation and consequences they left in the least developed municipality of Crna Trava, Serbia

Summary

Introduction

Landslides are connotated as one of the biggest problems of modern world and natural hazards of 21st century. Between 2004 and 2010, 2620 landslides killed a total of 32322 people worldwide – a number which doesn’t even include those caused by earthquakes (Petley, 2012).The Global Landslide Model which tracks recent rainfall and after checking recorded information about the susceptibility of terrain in each area, determined the likelihood of landslides occurrence, and was developed by Kirschbaum and Stanley (2018) The criteria they have been using is whether or not the roads have been built, whether trees have been cut down, whether a major tectonic fault is nearby, the state of the local bedrock, and – the most important factor – the steepness of hillsides. Local administrations apply certain security measures that temporarily stop the problem and protect the populated areas and high traffic routes from this type of accident

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Conclusion