Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals

E L Vosper,D M Mitchell,K Emanuel

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794

E L Vosper, D M Mitchell + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794

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Abstract

Hurricanes are among the most impactful extreme weather events affecting small island states such as the Caribbean and require long-term planning for community and infrastructure resilience. By coupling an offline dynamical hurricane model to the output of a large ensemble of global climate model simulations from the Half a degree of Additional warming Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we assess how the impacts of hurricanes may change under the Paris Climate goals. Specifically, we concentrate on hurricane rainfall over particular regions, with both the mobility and intensity of a hurricane being key drivers of local level impacts. For example, Hurricane Dorian (2019) caused widespread devastation when it stalled over Bahamas as a category 5 storm. We show that since 1970 only one other hurricane stalled at this strength: Hurricane Mitch (1998). Due to a combination of increased stalling and precipitation yield under a warmer world, our analysis indicates a greater likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall occurring in the Caribbean under both Paris Agreement scenarios of 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C Global Warming goals, compared to present climate projections. Focusing on specific hurricane events, we show that a rainfall event equal in magnitude to Hurricane Maria is around half as likely to occur under the 1.5 ∘C Paris Agreement goal compared to a 2 ∘C warmer climate. Our results highlight the need for more research into hurricanes in the Caribbean, an area which has traditionally received far less attention than mainland USA and requires more comprehensive infrastructure planning.

Highlights

Since 1960, the Caribbean has experienced 264 hurricanes which account for 95% of the total damages from all natural disasters (Burgess et al 2018) and for the vast majority of extreme rainfall events and extreme sea levels experienced in the region (Khouakhi et al 2017, Walsh et al 2015, Peterson et al 2002)
The Paris Agreement directly addresses their concerns in seeking to mitigate future risks arising from climate change, but even with the more ambitious maximum warming goal of a 1.5 ◦C, Small island developing states (SIDS) stand to be disproportionately affected by the corresponding impacts that extreme weather phenomena inflict on human and natural systems, whilst being among those that have least contributed to anthropogenic climate change (UNFCCC 2005)
The Caribbean region tends to receive far less attention when it comes to the analysis of hurricane impacts, with most studies in the North Atlantic Basin typically focusing on the United States

Summary

Introduction

Since 1960, the Caribbean has experienced 264 hurricanes which account for 95% of the total damages from all natural disasters (Burgess et al 2018) and for the vast majority of extreme rainfall events and extreme sea levels experienced in the region (Khouakhi et al 2017, Walsh et al 2015, Peterson et al 2002). Hurricanes present a significant threat to life in the Caribbean. With over half of the 44.2 million inhabitants of the Caribbean residing within 1.5 km of the coast, the region is vulnerable to hurricane activity (Mimura et al 2007). Critical infrastructure such as major roads, air and seaports, utilities, and communication networks tend to be concentrated in low-elevation coastal zones and is susceptible to severe damage from hurricanes (Cruz et al 2007, Mycoo 2018). Hurricane Dorian caused almost 2.5bn USD worth of damages when it stalled over the Bahamas as a category 5 storm in September 2019, rendering almost 3000 homes uninhabitable and causing widespread damage to hospitals, schools and fisheries (Panamerican Health Organisation 2019)

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