Extreme growth reaction of larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the Polish Sudetes and Carpathians: spatial distribution and climate impact

Monika Chuchro,Małgorzata Danek,Tomasz Danek

doi:10.1007/s00468-020-02029-z

Abstract

Key messageExtreme growth reaction analysis shows that larches in the Sudetes are more vulnerable to climate changes, but negative extreme responses will also be observed in the Carpathians in the near future.Pointer year analysis provides information on extreme tree-ring growth reactions, which can significantly improve the interpretation of tree growth response to climate. Similarities and differences in extreme growth responses of larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the Carpathians and the Sudetes (Polish parts) were studied. To this purpose, a pointer year analysis was performed. Regions with similar extreme growth response patterns to climatic conditions were distinguished. The spatial variability of extreme growth anomalies and the distribution of the determined widespread pointer years and their possible climatic forcing were analyzed. A coincidence of the positive pointer years observed in the Sudetes and lower Carpathians with wet and cold summers (especially during the previous year) was observed. Most of the subregional negative pointer years in the Sudetes are related to droughts whereas in the Carpathians this relation was not observed. Comparison of the extreme growth reaction of larch in both mountain regions suggest that larches in the Sudetes are more vulnerable to climate changes as the negative pointer years observed in the Sudetes are usually associated with droughts that are likely to intensify in the future. Similarities in the drivers of extreme responses of larch in both regions and predicted changes in climatic conditions suggest that negative extreme responses will also be observed in the Carpathians in the near future. The highest parts of the Carpathians (the Tatra Mountains) should be treated separately as both positive and negative pointer years observed there are temperature related. The obtained results suggest that the growth of larch stands in both regions will be negatively affected by predicted climate changes.

Highlights

Climate change and observed global warming affect forests in many ways in terms of growth, productivity and mortality; these factors can affect the distribution of forests and tree species (Thompson et al 2009; Lindner et al 2010; Dyderski et al 2018)
The results of clustering obtained for the Sudetes and the Carpathians are shown in Fig. 2a, b respectively
Colors of the background of the rows: light red—positive pointer years, light blue—negative pointer years. It seems that the extreme growth reactions commonly observed in larch in the study area were caused by the complex influence of many climatic stimuli, but they were usually clearly related to those defined during the analysis of the climate–growth relationships

Summary

Introduction

Climate change and observed global warming affect forests in many ways in terms of growth, productivity and mortality; these factors can affect the distribution of forests and tree species (Thompson et al 2009; Lindner et al 2010; Dyderski et al 2018). The analysis of tree growth can be a valuable tool in understanding the response of trees and their growth to climate This response can be positive or negative (e.g., Driscoll et al 2005, Cai et al 2020) and it changes over time (e.g., Gomes Marquesa et al 2018); it is species specific (e.g., Eilmann and Rigling 2012; Lyu et al 2017; Friedrichs et al 2009) and is dependent on the site-related or microsite-related factors (e.g., Driscoll et al 2005; Latte et al 2015). The analysis of the climate–growth relationship enables the general identification and assessment of the influence of the most important growth-limiting climatic factors It cannot provide information about the extremely positive or negative impact of climatic conditions observed in individual years (compare Neuwirth et al 2004). Pan-regional climatic conditions which substantially influence tree growth can be recognized and interpreted

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Results

Discussion

Conclusion