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Abstract
Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. In Southern Europe, within the Mediterranean climate, herbaceous vegetation achieves its maximum growth in middle spring followed by a three-month dry summer, limiting prey availability for insectivorous birds. Lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) breed in a time-window that matches the nestling-rearing period with the peak abundance of grasshoppers and forecasted climate change may impact reproductive success through changes in prey availability and abundance. We used Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality and prey availability to investigate the impacts of forecasted climate change and extreme climatic events on lesser kestrel breeding performance. First, using 14 years of data from 15 colonies in Southwestern Iberia, we linked fledging success and climatic variables with NDVI, and secondly, based on these relationships and according to climatic scenarios for 2050 and 2070, forecasted NDVI and fledging success. Finally, we evaluated how fledging success was influenced by drought events since 2004. Despite predicting a decrease in vegetation greenness in lesser kestrel foraging areas during spring, we found no impacts of predicted gradual rise in temperature and decline in precipitation on their fledging success. Notwithstanding, we found a decrease of 12% in offspring survival associated with drought events, suggesting that a higher frequency of droughts might, in the future, jeopardize the recent recovery of the European population. Here, we show that extreme events, such as droughts, can have more significant impacts on species than gradual climatic changes, especially in regions like the Mediterranean Basin, a biodiversity and climate change hotspot.
Highlights
Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats
We explored the use of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a surrogate of habitat quality to assess how climate change will impact the breeding performance of lesser kestrels, through changes in food availability
Using breeding data from a long-term study (2004–2017) on the lesser kestrel population in southern Portugal we focused on two main goals: (1) predict future NDVI and fledging success according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment’s future climate change scenarios and (2) evaluate how fledging success is influenced by extreme drought events
Summary
Climate change is predicted to severely impact interactions between prey, predators and habitats. Future projections predict a regional rise in temperature from 2 to 6°C depending on the climate scenario and season[34] These long-term trends show a decrease in precipitation (−4% to −27%) and an increase in drought periods with more frequent and extreme heatwaves[35,36,37]. Impacts on grassland ecosystems will change the vegetation structure and biomass, two crucial determinants of habitat quality for steppe birds[42,43] but will likely impact the availability of trophic resources, influencing birds’ behaviour, distribution and breeding success, constituting an additional threat to many endangered species[7,44,45]. Whilst there is virtually no information on the impacts of climate change on steppe birds, this information is vital for adaptive management
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