External Debt Dynamics and Sustainable Growth in Nigeria

The main objective of the study was to investigate the impact of Federal Government tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria spanning from 1986 – 2024 and variables employed were; Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR), Company Income Tax Revenue (CITR), Value Added tax revenue (VATR), Excise Duties Tax Revenue (CEDTR), and Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR). Data were sourced from the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) publications and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins. The study adopted an ex-post factor research design and the model was specified using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Public Finance Economic Theory was used as a theoretical framework. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as an econometric technique of data was used in the estimation of the parameter estimates. The findings of the study revealed that Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.42662) impact on economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria in the short-run but it had a statistically and significant positive impact on (GDP) in the long run. The findings of the study revealed that Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.890096) impact on economic growth (GDP) in the short-run and it had a statistically and significant positive (2.696599) long-run in Nigeria. Based on the findings of the study, the study recommended that the government should intensify efforts in sustaining the positive and significant impact of PPTR and PITR on economic growth in Nigeria for more revenue generation. The main objective of the study was to investigate the impact of Federal Government tax revenue on economic growth in Nigeria spanning from 1986 – 2024 and variables employed were; Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR), Company Income Tax Revenue (CITR), Value Added tax revenue (VATR), Excise Duties Tax Revenue (CEDTR), and Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR). Data were sourced from the Federal Inland Revenue Services (FIRS) publications and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletins. The study adopted an ex-post factor research design and the model was specified using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Public Finance Economic Theory was used as a theoretical framework. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) as an econometric technique of data was used in the estimation of the parameter estimates. The findings of the study revealed that Petroleum Profit tax Revenue (PPTR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.42662) impact on economic growth (GDP) in Nigeria in the short-run but it had a statistically and significant positive impact on (GDP) in the long run. The findings of the study revealed that Personal Income Tax Revenue (PITR) had a statistically and insignificant positive (1.890096) impact on economic growth (GDP) in the short-run and it had a statistically and significant positive (2.696599) long-run in Nigeria. Based on the findings of the study, the study recommended that the government should intensify efforts in sustaining the positive and significant impact of PPTR and PITR on economic growth in Nigeria for more revenue generation.

The study examined the Dynamics of Public Debt and Economic Growth in Nigeria, from 1980 to 2018. The study adopted Vector Auto Regressive Analysis in estimating the Data obtained from World Bank Development Indicator and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical Bulletin, Annual Report and Statement of Account for the year 2018. The variables used in the study are GDP proxy for economic growth which serves as the dependent variable and External debt, Domestic debt, Government expenditure and Exchange rate form the independent variables. However, from the result it was deduced that, external debt, and domestic debt has a negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. This is shown by the negative coefficient of EXDBT, and DDEBT. However, government expenditure and exchange rate has a positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria, and jointly, all the variables were significant as seen with the probability statistics. The VAR, estimates was able to show the extent of dynamics between public debt and economic growth especially when debts are disaggregated into external and domestic debt. It was concluded that, while domestic debts sign negatively with Nigeria’s gross domestic product, external debts sign negatively with it. The results contradict a-priori expectation of positive relationships based on theoretical postulation of the advantageous effects of leverage both at corporate and national levels, however, the results might probably have emanated from the fact that external debts are often associated with stringent repayment terms. They also embody other trade conditionality’s which may turn out to be counter-productive and inimical to the growth of less developed economies. However, it was recommended that, Nigeria should concentrate on inward financing of her economic growth by utilizing mostly, domestic debts Keywords: Public Debt, External Debt, Domestic Debt, Economic Growth DOI : 10.7176/JESD/10-24-03 Publication date: December 31 st 2019

The study examined the effect of macro-economic variables on economic growth in Nigeria between 1990-2022. Specifically, the paper examined the effect of Exchange rate on Economic growth in Nigeria and determined the effect of interest rate on Economic growth in Nigeria. The paper employed ex-facto research design, using secondary data and adopted SVAR model. The paper found out that interest rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria, and found that exchange rate has a significant effect on Economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The study concluded that macroeconomic variables has a significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria. Based on the study’s findings and conclusions above, the following recommendations were made: the government should improve on her foreign reserves as an absolute measure that will stabilize exchange rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria, and interest rate is found to have increased the potentials of Economic growth in Nigeria. It is therefore important to note that since interest rate have significantly affected the Economic growth in Nigeria, the CBN should improve on discount rate to stabilize interest rate to boost economic environment for effective investment to thrive and contribute to gross domestic product in Nigeria.

This paper interrogates the rationale behind federal government continued reliance on Keynesian’s fiscal policy prescriptions of deficit financing as a way of spurring sustained economic growth and development in Nigeria, especially when such ideology seems to contrast sharply with the realities of dwindling economic growth indices. In particular, this study investigates the extent both external debt and domestic debt impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Multiple regression method was adopted while Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was the main technique used in the analysis. The results of the ARDL model demonstrate that external debt (LEXD) and domestic debt (LDD) have a negative impact on LGDP. However, while external debt reveals a significant effect, domestic debt (LDD) has an insignificant impact on LGDP. Thus, the study recommends that government should discontinue the use of external debt to finance budget deficit in the economy, but look inward through aggressive internal revenue generation as well as embrace economic diversification policies, coupled with a drastic cut down on cost of governance in Nigeria.

This study carried out an empirical investigation on an empirical analysis of external debt sustainability and economic growth in Nigeria covering the period 1981 to 2021. Data for the study were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin and world development index (WDI) 2020. The method of data analysis used is the linear regression method with the application of Error Correction Model (ECM). The major findings of the study reveal that there exists a negative and insignificant relationship between external debt sustainability and economic growth in Nigeria ( = -0.000206, p-value = 0.4955 > 0.05) and there is a bi-directional causality relationship between external debt sustainability and economic growth in Nigeria (p-value = 0.0005 < 0.05 and 0.0071 < 0.05). It is therefore the recommendation of the study that the government should ensure economic and political stability in order to enjoy the benefits of external debt and make the debt burden minimal and the government should acquire external debt largely for economic reasons rather than social or political reasons. This would increase the productivity of the nation.

Research Aims: The purpose of this study is to ascertain the effect of external debt on economic growth and the causal relationship that exists between external debt and growth in South Africa and Nigeria between 1981 and 2022. Design/methodology/approach: To this end, VECM, VAR and pairwise Granger causality were used to analyze the data. on GDP, external debt, debt servicing, government expenditure, and exchange rate. . Research Findings: The results show that the effect of external debt on economic growth is insignificant in the near term, having positive influence in South Africa and negative impact in Nigeria. However, the long-term effects are detrimental and noteworthy in South Africa. Also, the results on causality indicate that, in Nigeria, there is no causal relationship between external debt and economic growth, but in South Africa, there is a unidirectional relationship between GDP and external debt Theoretical Contribution/Originality: This study concludes that, whereas exchange rates are the primary predictor of economic growth in Nigeria, external debt neither causes nor determines economic growth in South Africa or Nigeria. Rather, causation flows from economic growth to external debt exclusively in South Africa. Therefore, this study recommends that the government of both countries should channel their available resources towards developmental projects that will spur growth. Keywords: External debt, Causality, Growth, Emerging Market, GDP

Plastic pollution has become a significant environmental, social, and economic issue in Nigeria. Despite the various initiatives and policies put in place, plastic waste management remains a significant challenge in the country. Anti-plastic pollution innovations hold great potential for promoting sustainable development and economic growth in Nigeria. This research aims to examine the extent to which anti-plastic pollution innovations have been adopted, and their diffusion has affected economic growth and sustainable development in Nigeria through climate change communication. Anchored on the Diffusion of Innovations Theory, this research utilized a systematic review of the literature on plastic pollution and sustainable development in Nigeria. The study reveals that despite the various initiatives and policies put in place to manage plastic waste, Nigeria still faces significant environmental, economic, and social challenges. The diffusion of anti-plastic pollution innovations can promote sustainable development by reducing the negative impact of plastic waste on the environment and supporting economic growth. The study finds that the adoption and diffusion of anti-plastic pollution innovations in Nigeria have been slow due to low awareness, limited resources, and inadequate policies and regulatory frameworks. The study concludes that there is a need for increased awareness, collaboration between stakeholders, and policy support to further promote the diffusion of anti-plastic pollution innovations in Nigeria and suggested innovative ways through which climate change communication can be used to aid the diffusion of anti-plastic pollution innovations.

This study investigated the effects of restructuring industrial sector on economic growth in Nigeria. The study sets to examine the effect of the manufacturing on economic growth in Nigeria, examine the impact of crude petroleum and natural gas on economic growth in Nigeria and investigate the effect of solid mineral mining on economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted both primary and secondary source of data. The study employed Error Correction Model (ECM) and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for hypothesis testing. The findings of the study showed that Manufacturing (LnMAN) had a significant positive effect on economic growth in Nigeria. Crude petroleum and natural gas (LnCPN) had positive and significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Solid mineral mining (LnSMM) had an insignificant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Therefore, the study concluded that restructuring industrial sector, if properly and adequately implemented, would certainly propel and facilitate economic growth, development and unity in Nigeria with positive multiplier effect on West African states and Africa as a whole. Hence, recommended that there is need for the government to develop stimulants for the manufacturing sector and manufacturers in form of tax incentives and credit facilities. A good road network to mining sites and a sufficient power supply will go a long way to boost the productivity of the sector. Government should encourage the production of more agricultural products that could be used as raw materials by manufacturing industries to achieve balanced growth between the agricultural and the manufacturing industries of the Nigerian economy.

This work investigated the impact of labour force participation on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2021 using annual time series data on real gross domestic product (RGDP), male labour force participation rate (MLFPR) and female labour force participation rate (FLFPR). The objectives are to examine the impact of male labour force participation rate (MLFPR) and female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) on economic growth in Nigeria and to ascertain the causality relationship between male labour force participation rate, female labour force participation rate, and economic growth in Nigeria using ARDL Bounds Testing methodology. The result indicated that male labour force participation rate (MLFPR) and female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) had statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria in the short run. The result also revealed that, in the long run, male labour force participation rate (MLFPR) and female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) had statistically insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. A uni-directional causality relationship is found between male labour force participation rate (MLFPR) and economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria over the period covered with the causality running from economic growth to male labour force participation rate. The result further indicated that there is no significant causality relationship between female labour force participation rate (FLFPR) and economic growth in Nigeria over the period covered. The study therefore recommended that government should design active policy for male and female participation in labour force and seriously empower women to participate in labour force in Nigeria.

This study examined external borrowing and economic growth in Nigeria covering the period 1981 – 2019. The main objective of the study is to ascertain the impact of external borrowing on economic growth in Nigeria. Times series data on GDP, external debt, exchange rate, external debt servicing payments and inflation were extracted from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin 2018 was used for the study. The method of data analysis and evaluation were the unit-root test which was used to ascertain the stationary status of the variables, the linear regression with the application of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique and the Granger causality analysis. The major findings of the study are that all the variables are stationary at first difference I(1), external debt has a negative and insignificant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria ( = -0004912, p-value = 0.6944 > 0.05) and there is no causality relationship existing between external debt and economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that the federal government should acquire external debt largely for economic reasons rather than social or political reasons. This would increase the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the nation.

Researchers have come up with varying opinions on the impact of fiscal policy tools on the economic growth of many nations. While some are of the view that fiscal policy tools have positive relationship with economic growth, others posit that it has a negative impact while a third group are of the opinion that its impact could either be positive or negative depending on how it is harnessed with other macro-economic variables and yet a fourth school of thought has emerged. They are of the opinion that fiscal policy tools could have a little but not significant impact on the economic growth of any given nation. Thus this study is set to lend its voice and opinion on this discuss with emphasis on the Nigerian economy using a time series data for the period 1999-2020. The data were analyzed using Ordinary Least Square method and a Vector Auto regression Analysis. In the model, Real GDP (taken as dependent variable) was regressed on tax revenues, capital and recurrent expenditures. Other independent variables include deficit financing, external and domestic debts. Findings of study indicate that in the short run, deficit financing, domestic debt and recurrent expenditures all had significant positive relationship with economic growth in Nigeria; while there exists a significant negative relationship between external debts and real GDP. Capital expenditure and tax revenues did not have a significant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria in the short run. In the long run, the earlier outcomes fizzled out as only the lagged value of RGDP, taken as an explanatory variable was found to be positively significant. From the foregoing analysis, it was established that fiscal policy tools did not sustain a significant relationship with economic growth in Nigeria in the long run, thus pitching our tent with the fourth school of thought. Fiscal policy tools are not enough to pilot the economic ship of Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that government should use fiscal policy instruments to complement its sister strategy – the monetary policy tools to promote stability in the Nigerian economy. A good mix of fiscal and monetary policy tools could help in the formulation and implementation of sound economic policies; the impact of which will be appreciated from the standpoint of how rapidly and effectively it fosters, innovates or facilitates economic growth in Nigeria.

This study examines the effect of public debt and infrastructure on economic growth in Nigeria between 1981 to 2022. Secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical bulletin, Debt Management Office and the World Bank. The primary objective is to analyze the effects of public debt on Nigeria's real GDP growth rate and to evaluate the significance of infrastructure in driving economic growth. The unit root tests- the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were employed to assess the stationarity of the variables while the cointegration tests were conducted to explore long-term relationships among the variables. The findings reveal that external debt has a significant negative impact on Nigeria's economic growth, while internal debt shows no significant effect. Infrastructure demonstrates a significant positive impact on economic growth. The study concludes that prudent external debt management and strategic infrastructure are crucial for fostering sustainable economic growth in Nigeria. Based on these findings, several recommendations are proposed; Policymakers should prioritize borrowing from concessional sources to minimize the external debt burden, place embargo on new loans and implement stringent debt management policies. Developing a robust domestic debt market through regulatory enhancements and private sector incentives can provide a stable funding source for developmental projects. Additionally, strategic investments in critical infrastructure sectors, supported by public-private partnerships (PPPs), can address bottlenecks and encourage foreign direct investments. Keywords: Public debt, Internal debt, External debt, Infrastructure, Economic growth, Debt management. JEL Code: H63, H54, O40 DOI : 10.7176/JESD/16-1-07 Publication date : January 30th 2025

The study examined the effect of foreign aid and aid-institutional quality interaction on economic growth in Nigeria for the period (1981 - 2022) using FMOLS method. The result of the study shows that foreign aid (ODA) exerted positive but insignificant impact on economic growth in Nigeria, indicating that ODA is relevant to Nigeria’s economic growth but is not among the major drivers of economic growth in Nigeria. The aid-institutional quality interaction variable, the ODA interaction with corruption index (ODA*CPI), showed negative relationship with economic growth which suggests that weak institution, especially corruption, had constrained the positive effect of ODA on economic growth in Nigeria. The ODA absorptive capacity constraint (ODA2) had a negative and significant impact on economic growth which suggests the existence of inverted U-shape relationship between ODA and economic growth. The negative coefficient of absorptive capacity constraint of ODA shows that there is a critical level which beyond, further increase in ODA will impede economic growth. As for other variables, labour force (L), domestic capital (K), crude oil price (COP), financial deepening (FDP) and trade openness (TOP) had positive and significant relationship with economic growth (RGDP) in Nigeria. The coefficient of foreign direct investment (FDI) had a negative sign, implying that FDI had a negative impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It is recommended that there should be prudent utilization of ODA received, better and effective macroeconomic policies, improvement in the quality of governance and strengthening of relevant institutions to abate the problem of pervasive corruption in the country. Finally, aid fungibility should be avoided.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of sectoral utilization of foreign exchange and the policy implications for economic growth in Nigeria.
 Methodology: The methodology involved the use of annual time series data covering 1997 to 2022 for pre-diagnostic tests for unit roots which showed that the variables used in the study: economic growth (proxied by real gross domestic product), visible transactions, invisible transactions, treasury bill rate, and exchange rate, were stationary in the first difference. Hence, after first differencing the data, the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimation method was used to estimate the model.
 Findings: The findings of the study showed that visible and invisible foreign exchange utilization valid for foreign exchange transactions, in addition to exchange rate and Treasury bill rate impacted positively and significantly on economic growth in Nigeria during the study period. The results of the study strengthened the theoretical basis for the use of relevant policies to grow economies generally, and that of Nigeria in particular.
 Unique contributor to theory, policy and practice: By implication, the governments at all tiers should endeavor to provide the enabling environment for greater availability and utilization of foreign exchange to further improve economic growth and sustainable development in Nigeria.

This paper examines the impact of foreign aid on economic growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique for regression analysis. The study employs time series data from 1986 to 2020 to analyze the long-run and short-run relationship between foreign aid, economic growth in Nigeria. The study adopted the combined theories of economic growth of the Harrod-Domar Model, the Two-Gap Model and the Three- Gap Model in theoretical outlook. The data set is used to test the long-term relationship as well as the short-term relationship. The results show that foreign aid has a positive and significant impact on economic growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria in both the long-run and short run. The study concludes that foreign aid can be an effective tool for promoting economic growth and poverty reduction in Nigeria. The study recommended that in targeting aid towards infrastructure development, foreign aid can be used to fund infrastructure projects like building and upgrading roads, ports, and power plants to create jobs and increase economic activity. It also recommended investing in education and healthcare, foreign aid can be used to support education and healthcare initiatives, to improve the overall health and well-being of the population and increase productivity.