External Debt and Economic Growth in Sierra Leone: A Threshold Analysis

Abstract

The main focus of this study is to investigate the impact of external debt on economic growth and determine the threshold level of external debt that is favourable for economic growth in Sierra Leone, within the framework of a non-linear model (quadratic function). The study employs the Ordinary Least Squares estimation technique with annual time series data for the period 1980 to 2022. The empirical findings reveal that, lagged GDP, external debt, external debt squared and investment are the main drivers of economic growth in Sierra Leone. Specifically, the result reveals that external debt, investment and lagged GDP have a positive impact on growth whilst, external debt squared has a harmful impact on growth. Furthermore, the study establishes a nonlinear relationship between external debt and economic growth. The result indicates that the optimal threshold level of external debt (as a % of GDP) in Sierra Leone is 115%. The findings reveal that, external debt below the threshold level is growth enhancing. However, the accumulation of external debt beyond the threshold level of 115% is detrimental to growth. The diagnostic result confirms that about 76% of the variation in economic growth is explained by the regressors (independent variables). Also, the granger causality test result suggests a unidirectional causality from external debt to economic growth with no reverse causality, indicating that external debt granger caused economic growth at the 5% level. Based on the findings, the study recommends that, government should develop a robust debt management policy, to keep debt levels within sustainable limits and also cultivate an economic culture of transparency, on the issue of debt management and contract negotiations.