Export and application of SARIMA model for forecasting the value of Vietnam export during Covid-19

Abstract

This article examines the export value before and during the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic in Vietnam, and applies the SARIMA model to forecast the export value of Vietnam in the period from 01/2000 to 05/2021, collected from VietstockFinance and processed using Eviews 10 software. Research results show that the Covid-19 pandemic does not seem to affect Vietnam's export value compared to the same period last year. Through this result, it also shows that the Government of Vietnam has taken good export strategy to deal with the pandemic and bring high export value. The results of applying SARIMA model show that the model has a predictive value that approximates the actual export value with high accuracy in the period from January 2000 to May 2021. From testing the forecast accuracy of the SARIMA model, the study also makes forecasts about Vietnam's export value from 06/2021 to the end of 2021. Based on the research results, the authors also make a number of recommendations for current export policy makers to focus on diversifying export markets, actively seeking new markets, effectively exploiting export markets and exploiting export markets, opportunities from FTAs, successfully harmonizing the "dual goal" of both preventing and controlling the Covid-19 epidemic and promoting economic development in Vietnam.