Exploring trade-offs in public bus electrification under stochastic conditions

Abstract

In this article, we address the question of electric bus planning and operation under stochastic travel time and energy consumption. Uncertainties in the environment may cause disruptions to the planning and operation of electric buses, and a transportation planner must anticipate such conditions and be able to respond appropriately. One of the preconditions for planning robust strategies is understanding the existence and impact of multiple trade-off scenarios, which is the basis for this study. We model the travel time delays and trip energy consumption using estimated probability density functions and use a stochastic, mixed-integer formulation with chance constraints to evaluate several trade-off scenarios for electric bus fleets under uncertainty. The results show the existence of trade-off scenarios that lead to varying degrees of impacts related to network and environment. Careful fleet planning, dispatch, and charge control enable us to make the balance between these trade-offs and achieve better operational performances under uncertainty.