Exploring the stimulative effect on following drivers in a consecutive lane change using microscopic vehicle trajectory data

Abstract

Abstract Improper lane-changing behaviours may result in breakdown of traffic flow and the occurrence of various types of collisions. This study investigates lane-changing behaviours of multiple vehicles and the stimulative effect on following drivers in a consecutive lane-changing scenario. The microscopic trajectory data from the HighD dataset are used for driving behaviour analysis. Two discretionary lane-changing vehicle groups constitute a consecutive lane-changing scenario, and not only distance- and speed-related factors but also driving behaviours are taken into account to examine the impacts on the utility of following lane-changing vehicles. A random parameters logit model is developed to capture the driver's psychological heterogeneity in the consecutive lane-changing situation. Furthermore, a lane-changing utility prediction model is established based on three supervised learning algorithms to detect the improper lane-changing decision. Results indicate that 1) the consecutive lane-changing behaviours have a significant negative effect on the following lane-changing vehicles after lane change; 2) the stimulative effect exists in a consecutive lane-change situation and its influence is heterogeneous due to different psychological activities of drivers; and 3) the utility prediction model can be used to detect an improper lane-changing decision.