Exploring the Potential for Arctic System Modeling

Abstract

whAt: Scientists from seven nations established an international framework to identify common deficiencies and evaluate simulations of next-generation regional Arctic models being developed to include sophisticated biogeochemistry, ecology, and expanded cryospheric and human-system components. when: 16–17 July 2009 where: University of Quebec at Montreal c limate and ecosystems of high northern latitudes are now changing so rapidly that their comprehension and predictability have become strong priorities for Earth system research (e.g., Hinzman et al. 2005; Wang and Overland 2009). These changes differ markedly from those inferred from many current global climate models, and there are considerable limitations in our understanding of high-latitude climate sensitivities (Rind 2008). Reasons for these inadequacies may reside along interfaces and coupling channels of the total system, including biogeochemical, ecosystem, and human components that are not included in most current climate models. Furthermore, a unique opportunity now exists to apply outcomes from observational studies undertaken during the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–09 to improve understanding of physical–biogeochemical–ecological–human interconnectivity in the Arctic using complex system models. These factors provided the motivation for this community workshop, held by the University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM), International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Meeting deliberations focused on the future configuration, development, and implementation of high-resolution, integrated environmental system models of the Arctic and surrounding regions. The meeting explored possibilities for international collaboration in the development of regional Arctic system models (ASMs). They are being developed in several countries and have been identified as agents for understanding physical–biogeochemical– ecological–human interconnectivity of high northern latitudes. ASMs are rapidly evolving from coupled, regional climate models to include sophisticated biogeochemistry, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosols. Some researchers are also looking to incorporate glaciers, ice sheets, hydrates, and human-system components into ASMs within the next five years. ASMs can generate a unique spectrum of limiteddomain model states with varying complexity to target important coupling paths affecting variability and rapid change. ASMs are also an ideal platform for downscaling global climate projections so that human–environment interactions can be nested within Earth system simulations. These noteworthy features have stimulated a growing network of regional Arctic modelers to forge stronger ties. The previous Arctic System Modeling Workshop, sponsored by IARC, was held in Boulder, Colorado, in May 2008. It culminated in a blueprint for a community ASM (CASM) to resolve finescale Arctic processes and to develop and improve upon methods used for global Earth system modeling near the poles (for workshop participants, deliberations, and