The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season Despite Strong El Niño Conditions

Abstract

Abstract The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was above normal, producing 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and seasonal Accumulated Cyclone Energy that exceeded the 1991–2020 average. Hurricane Idalia was the most damaging hurricane of the year, making landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in Florida, resulting in eight direct fatalities and $3.6 billion USD in damage. The above-normal 2023 hurricane season occurred during a strong El Niño event. El Niño events tend to be associated with increased vertical wind shear across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, yet vertical wind shear during the peak hurricane season months of August–October was well below normal. The primary driver of the above-normal season was likely record warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which effectively counteracted some of the canonical impacts of El Niño. The extremely warm tropical Atlantic and Caribbean were associated with weaker-than-normal trade winds driven by an anomalously weak subtropical ridge, resulting in a positive wind-evaporation-SST feedback. We tested atmospheric circulation sensitivity to SSTs in both the tropical and subtropical Pacific and the Atlantic using the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2.3. We found that the extremely warm Atlantic was the primary driver of the reduced vertical wind shear relative to other moderate/strong El Niño events. The concentrated warmth in the eastern tropical Pacific in August–October may have contributed to increased levels of vertical wind shear than if the warming had been more evenly spread across the eastern and central tropical Pacific.