Exploring the potential demand for Jakarta–Bandung high-speed rail

Abstract

This paper investigates two fundamental questions related to the new development of high-speed rail (HSR) infrastructure in Indonesia: (1) What are the variables that affect intercity traveler preference between private cars via toll roads, intercity trains, and HSR? and (2) what are the determinants of psychological intentions for intercity travelers regarding HSR? On the basis of a survey of 412 Bandung–Jakarta travelers, the mixed logit model and a modification of the theory of planned behavior were deployed to analyze the extent to which the mode choice of travelers was affected by various factors, including trip characteristics, sociodemographic, and travelers’ perceptions on HSR. The analyses reveal that existing car users tend to keep using their cars via toll roads. The demand for HSR comes from existing intercity train users with high-income levels, whereas train users with lower income levels prefer to continue using intercity trains. With regard to other sociodemographic effects, females and travelers younger than 50 years old would be more likely to switch to HSR. Travelers with business trips are also more likely to use HSR. Furthermore, the study found that the use intention of HSR is more influenced by subjective norms, perceived moral obligation, and perceived behavioral controls rather than attitude variables such as comfort and reliability. Several policy recommendations are outlined from the findings to achieve the sustainability of HSR in the future.