Exploring the nexus between agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions in BIMSTEC region: The role of renewable energy and human capital as moderators

Better information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potential in the agricultural sector is necessary to manage these emissions and identify responses that are consistent with the food security and economic development priorities of countries. Critical activity data (what crops or livestock are managed in what way) are poor or lacking for many agricultural systems, especially in developing countries. In addition, the currently available methods for quantifying emissions and mitigation are often too expensive or complex or not sufficiently user friendly for widespread use.The purpose of this focus issue is to capture the state of the art in quantifying greenhouse gases from agricultural systems, with the goal of better understanding our current capabilities and near-term potential for improvement, with particular attention to quantification issues relevant to smallholders in developing countries. This work is timely in light of international discussions and negotiations around how agriculture should be included in efforts to reduce and adapt to climate change impacts, and considering that significant climate financing to developing countries in post-2012 agreements may be linked to their increased ability to identify and report GHG emissions (Murphy et al 2010, CCAFS 2011, FAO 2011).

Searching for solutions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions by agricultural policy decisions — Application of system dynamics modeling for the case of Latvia

Energy-related GHG emission in agriculture of the European countries: An application of the Generalized Divisia Index

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture contribute to climate change. The consequences of unsustainable agricultural activity are polluted water, soil, air, and food. The agricultural sector has become one of the major contributors to global GHG emissions and is the world’s second largest emitter after the energy sector, which includes emissions from power generation and transport. Latvian and Lithuanian agriculture generates about one fifth of GHG emissions, while Estonia generates only about one tenth of the country’s GHG emissions. This paper investigates the GHG trends in agriculture from 1995 to 2019 and the driving forces of changes in GHG emissions from the agricultural sectors in the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), which are helpful for formulating effective carbon reduction policies and strategies. The impact factors have on GHG emissions was analysed by using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method based on Kaya identity. The aim of this study is to assess the dynamics of GHG emissions in agriculture and to identify the factors that have had the greatest impact on emissions. The analysis of the research data showed that in all three Baltic States GHG emissions from agriculture from 1995 to 2001–2002 decreased but later exceeded the level of 1995 (except for Lithuania). The analysis of the research data also revealed that the pollution caused by animal husbandry activities decreased. GHG intensity declined by 2–3% annually, but the structure of agriculture remained relatively stable. The decomposition of GHG emissions in agriculture showed very large temporary changes in the analysed factors and the agriculture of the Baltic States. GHG emissions are mainly increased by pollution due to the growing economy of the sector, and their decrease is mainly influenced by two factors—the decrease in the number of people employed in the agriculture sector and the decreasing intensity of GHGs in agriculture. The dependence of the result on the factors used for the decomposition analysis was investigated by the method of multivariate regression analysis. Regression analysis showed that the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.93) was obtained for Estonian data and the lowest (R2 = 0.54) for Lithuanian data. In the case of Estonia, all factors were statistically significant; in the case of Latvia and Lithuania, one of the factors was statistically insignificant. The identified GHG emission factors allowed us to submit our insights for the reduction of emissions in the agriculture of the Baltic States.

To achieve the goal of "carbon peak and neutrality," the strict requirements for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions control in the agricultural sector were recommended in relevant plans for Beijing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. Through collecting agricultural activity data and calculating and screening the emission factors, the amount and emission characteristics of agricultural GHG emissions in Beijing in 2020 were estimated and set as the baseline condition. On this basis, the GHG emissions in 2025 with optimized measurements implemented, which were selected in combination with the natural conditions and planting-breeding mode of Beijing, were set as the reduction condition. The emission reduction potential and its distribution during the 14th Five-Year Plan Period were predicted simultaneously. Meanwhile, the reduction effects on the GHG emissions of optimized measurements were evaluated. In addition, relevant policy recommendations on GHG reduction were proposed accordingly. The results revealed that the total agricultural GHG emissions in Beijing were estimated to be 456000 t (CO2-eq) in 2020, primarily from sources of animal intestinal fermentation and manure management, with contribution rates of 50.7% and 26.7%, respectively. Spatially, it was mainly distributed in districts with large livestock and poultry breeding scales, such as Shunyi District, Miyun District, and Yanqing District, etc. It was predicted that in 2025, the total agricultural GHG emissions would be 349000 t (CO2-eq), and the emission reduction potential in the 14th Five-Year Plan period would be 107000 t (CO2-eq). Animal intestinal fermentation would be the emission source with the largest reduction potential (60000 tons, CO2-eq), followed by the emission source of animal manure management (37000 tons, CO2-eq). Adjusting fodder composition and optimizing manure management were analyzed to be the most effective optimized measurements for agricultural GHG emission reduction. Moreover, the emission reduction potential of CH4 would be greater than that of N2O. The emission reduction potential would be mainly distributed in Miyun District, Shunyi District, Yanqing District, Fangshan District, Tongzhou District, and other suburbs with large livestock and poultry breeding scales, accounting for more than 10% of the total emission reduction potential for each. These regions with large emission reduction potential should be prioritized and then the assessments should be extended to the whole city. The measurements were recommended as follows:① the research and promotion of technologies such as fodder optimization and the efficient treatment of manure should be strengthened, ② the scope of the combination of planting and breeding model should be expanded to promote the development of circular agriculture, and ③ relevant standards, guidelines, and specifications for green and low-carbon agriculture should be formulated, and the regulatory and policy system for synergy reduction of agricultural pollution and GHG should be developed.

Analysis of the efficiency of greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture is an important part of agricultural and environmental economics research. The theme is extremely important due to the deepening problem of climate change and the simultaneous need to ensure food security. However, counteracting climate change cannot be achieved at the expense of reducing agricultural productivity. Due to the need to study the economic-environmental relationship in agriculture, the main purpose of this study was to assess the changes in the level and structure of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and to examine the changes in efficiency of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. The authors also estimated the relative efficiency of emissions, which allowed for comparing the efficiency of emissions between agriculture and other sectors of the national economy. Analyzing the changes in agricultural emissions efficiency, as well as changes in relative efficiency of emissions, is an indirect way of assessing whether the ongoing trends are consistent with the sustainable development concept and if the country is effective enough in mitigating climate change in relation to its economic performance. The research conducted showed that agriculture has a significant share of greenhouse gas emissions among all sectors of the Polish economy. However, greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture decreased by a total of 23.5% in the years studied. The most significant changes occurred in the context of greenhouse gas emissions from intestinal fermentation. The research also shows that the efficiency of emissions from agriculture more than doubled in the years examined. However, it decreased compared to other sectors of the economy in the country. This study was based on emissions data retrieved from National Inventory Reports prepared by the National Center for Emissions Management and on the Agricultural Statistical Yearbooks of the Central Statistical Office. This paper also proposes some examples of measures that could be taken to reduce agricultural emissions. Some of them include reducing food losses, sustainable use of fertilizers, increasing energy efficiency, and greater use of renewable energy.

Nexus of embodied land use and greenhouse gas emissions in global agricultural trade: A quasi-input–output analysis

Dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China

The increase of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has become a significant issue for China, affecting the achievement of its Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. Expansion of the large-scale multiple cropping system as a consequence of climate warming could be a major driving force of this increase. In this study, life cycle assessment was employed to identify agricultural GHG emissions due to the expansion of the multiple cropping system in the North China Plain and neighboring regions. We found that agricultural greenhouse gas emissions have increased from 41.34 to 120.87 Tg CO2-eq/yr over the past 30 years, and the expansion of the multiple cropping system has contributed to 13.89% of this increment. Furthermore, the increases in straw handling and agricultural inputs which are related to multiple cropping systems have also played an important role. Results of our study demonstrate that the expansion of the multiple cropping system contributes considerably to increases in agricultural GHG emissions in the North China Plain and neighboring regions. Therefore, it can be concluded that the sustained northward expansion of the multiple cropping system will further elevate agricultural GHG emissions in China, and this should be considered while formulating policies to reduce GHG emissions from agriculture.

<p>Agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Africa contribute 15 % to the global total agricultural emissions, which is in the same range as agricultural emissions from Europe. The majority of these agricultural GHG emissions is attributed to livestock farming (up to 80 % at national scale), of which 10-25 % originate from livestock manure. At the same time, livestock production is essential for the livelihoods of millions of people in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where 45-80 % of livestock production occurs in smallholder systems. With the growing population in SSA, the demand for livestock products is expected to increase, and – without low-emission manure management – a rise in manure-borne GHG emissions will occur. However, reliable <em>in situ</em> measurements from SSA are scarce, leading to substantial uncertainties in agricultural GHG budgets and making assessments of potential mitigation options difficult.</p><p>Here we present results from two cattle manure incubation experiments in Kenya, using manure from Boran (<em>Bos indicus</em>) cattle, a breed common in East Africa that were fed with typical feeds used in SSA smallholder farms. Manure was collected and piled in heaps (solid storage), the most common form of manure storage in Kenyan smallholder systems, and CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions were measured over 140 days. In the first trial, cattle were fed a diet that either met their maintenance-energy requirements (i.e. animals received enough food to support their metabolism), or a diet at sub-maintenance energy levels to simulate common conditions in smallholder farming systems, particularly during the dry seasons. Cumulative manure N<sub>2</sub>O emissions from the sub-maintenance diet (i.e. the “hungry” cows) were lower than from cattle fed at maintenance energy levels. These lower N<sub>2</sub>O emission likely resulted from lower N concentration and a wider C:N ratio in the manure than in the “better fed” animals. Furthermore, the urine-N:faecal-N ratio in the “hungry” cows decreased, indicating a shift from urine-N (mostly inorganic N) to faecal-N (mostly organic N), which further backs the lower observed N<sub>2</sub>O emissions. Both N<sub>2</sub>O as well as CH<sub>4</sub> emissions from manure were lower than the IPCC default emission factors for solid storage in tropical regions across all diets tested.</p><p>In the second trial, Boran cattle were fed with three different tropical forage grasses common in Kenya: Napier (<em>Pennisetum purpureum</em>), Rhodes (<em>Gloris gayana</em>), and Brachiaria (<em>Brachiaria brizantha</em>). Manure from the Rhodes grass diet had the lowest N concentration and also the lowest cumulative CH<sub>4</sub> emissions, while N<sub>2</sub>O emissions did not differ between diets. Similar to the sub-maintenance feeding trial, total CH<sub>4</sub> and N<sub>2</sub>O emissions were lower than the IPCC default factors. Taken together, these results are an important step towards reducing the uncertainties in GHG emissions from agriculture in SSA. Furthermore, if African nations use IPCC default values for their national GHG reporting on livestock, emissions are likely to be overestimated, highlighting the importance and benefits of localized data from Africa.</p>

Agricultural Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Ireland are projected to increase up to 21 Mt CO2eq by 2030 mainly driven by increased dairy cow numbers and increased nitrogen fertiliser use. In response to the growing public awareness of the GHG emissions' environmental impact, the Irish government published the Climate Action Plan in 2019, which identifies the agricultural sector's leading role in reducing GHG emission and increasing carbon removals to achieve the national GHG emission targets by 2030. Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACCs) on Irish GHG emissions have projected the total technically feasible mitigation potential for the Irish agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sector to be sufficient enough to achieve the set targets by 2030. Although these mitigation measures are available and when implemented, would mostly lead to a win-win situation, the voluntary adaptation rate by farmers is low. This study addresses the most significant determinants of voluntary adoption of mitigation measures by systematically examining existing literature on how and to what extent non-price determinants affectthe voluntary adoption rate of technically feasible mitigation measures in the Irish afolu sector. The main identified nonprice determining factors were the degree of farmers' awareness regarding man-made GHG emissions, receiving agrienvironmental advice, implementation costs, profitability and size of farms, land quality and the type of farm enterprise. Integrating the gained results in the former macc analysis enabled us to adopt the implementation rates of the cost-efficient afolu mitigation measures accordingly. The non-price determinants impact the voluntary uptake rate of AFOLU mitigation measures to the extent that the adjusted total Irish AFOLU abatement potential is 47% lower than technically feasible. Considering that 51.6% of the total estimated AFOLU abatement potential in 2030 is offset through Irish forestry, which at current afforestation rate will turn into a net carbon source by 2035, a significant gap occurs to any potential Irish and EU GHG reduction targets. To substantially help bring the nexus between agricultural development and GHG emission targets in Ireland closer together, policy measures, that differentiate between the different type of AFOLU mitigation measures, need to be implemented to enhance the uptake rate of cost-beneficial and cost-effective measures. This would have the potential to reduce the level of agricultural GHG emissions by 2030 in a way that it would converge towards possible EU and Irish GHG emission reduction targets.

At the UN climate change conference in Paris in November 2015, Norway committed itself to a 40% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Agriculture accounts for 8% of Norway’s total GHG emissions. If GHGs from drained and cultivated wetland (categorized under land use, land use change and forestry) are included, the share is 13%; this for a sector that accounts for roughly 0.3% of GDP. As is the case in most countries, agriculture is currently exempt from emission reduction measures, including the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (ETS), in which Norway participates. But the country has recently signaled its intention to include agriculture in future emission reduction efforts. Consideration is being given to how best to achieve GHG reductions in the sector. A recent report by the Norwegian Green Tax Commission, established by the government to evaluate policy options for achieving emission reductions, (Government of Norway, 2015) emphasizes the importance of including agriculture. The Commission suggests that agricultural emissions should be taxed at the same rate as for other sectors. It also recommends that reductions in the production and consumption of red meat should be specifically targeted, through cuts in production grants to farmers and the imposition of consumption taxes. Unsurprisingly, this proposed policy shift is extremely controversial and faces resistance, particularly from the farmers’ unions. Farmers argue that the maintenance of domestic agricultural production is crucial for achieving national food security objectives, in addition to pursuing other aims such as the maintenance of economic activity in rural areas and landscape preservation. Food security, which has been a key policy objective since the end of the Second World War, has been interpreted in Norway as requiring high levels of selfsufficiency in basic agricultural commodities. To achieve this, substantial subsidies are provided to farmers and domestic prices of many commodities are kept at high levels by restricting imports. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that the total financial support provided to Norwegian agriculture in 2015 was equivalent to 62% of the value of gross farm receipts, which made Norway (along with Switzerland) a leader in the amount of support provided to agriculture by the 50 OECD member and non-member countries monitored by the Organization (OECD, 2016). In this paper we analyze policy options for achieving a 40% reduction in agricultural GHG emissions, consistent with the economy-wide target, while imposing the restriction that national food production measured in calories should be maintained (the food security target). This is consistent with the way that the Norwegian government identifies the country’s food security objective. In section 2 we outline the current situation with respect to GHG emissions in Norwegian agriculture. In section 3 we illustrate the policy issues involved by considering two product aggregates that are intensive in the use of land for crop production (grainland) and grassland, respectively. The aggregates are based on data for the main commodities in Norwegian agriculture relating to GHG emissions, land use, caloric content, subsidies, and costs per unit of production. We show that even though the opportunity set (i.e., the production combinations that are possible within technical constraints) is narrow, a 40% cut in emissions is achievable by substituting from ruminant products that are intensive in the use of grassland to products based on grainland. We also show that the emissions reduction both reduces government budgetary costs and land use, i.e., ruminant products are characterized by relatively high subsidies and land use. Two-dimensional analysis ignores the fact that per unit emissions from dairy production are low compared to other ruminant products (i.e., beef and sheep production). Both in terms of production value and agricultural employment, dairy farming is the most important component of Norwegian agriculture. Consequently, milk production deserves to be separated from ruminant meat production. Finally in section 4, we present a detailed analysis 3 of policy options derived from a disaggregated model that includes all the major products in Norwegian agriculture. In the model-based analysis, we examine first the imposition of a carbon tax, while maintaining existing agricultural support policies and import protection, and achieving the food security (production of calories) target. Since the imposition of a carbon tax in agriculture presents both technical and political challenges, we then examine an alternative approach of changing the existing structure of agricultural support to approximate the same result. We show that it is possible to change current subsidy rates to mimic the carbon tax and calorie target solution. The explanation for this is that ruminant products not only generate high emissions per produced calorie, but they are also the most highly subsidized products. Meat from ruminants is relatively unimportant in achieving Norway’s food security objective of calorie availability.

Structural change in agricultural inputs and greenhouse gas Emissions: Pathways for sustainable environmental management in China.

Gaining Acceptance of Novel Plant Breeding Technologies.

Agricultural materials input (fertilizer and pesticide, etc.), together with straw burning, rice planting, and livestock breeding, constitute the sources of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, most related studies have discussed the total amount of agricultural GHG emissions or the role of straw burning and rice planting in agricultural GHG emissions and few studies on agricultural GHG emissions from Agricultural materials. Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2003 to 2018, this paper explored the evolution process of agricultural GHG emissions from Agricultural materials. Our research turned up some interesting findings. For example, firstly, Agricultural materials play an increasingly important role in agricultural GHG emissions. Agricultural GHG emissions due to Agricultural materials account for an increasing proportion of the total agricultural GHG emissions. Secondly, there are regional differences in the evolution trend of agricultural GHG emissions caused by agricultural materials. Especially after the urbanization rate broke through the critical line of 50% around 2010 in China.