Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for China's provincial peaks of CO2 emissions

Abstract

Understanding the drivers and peaks of CO2 emissions at the provincial level plays a crucial role in achieving the goals of China's CO2 emissions peak by 2030. This research combines the spatial-temporal Logarithmic Mean Division Index with scenario analysis to empirically explore the drivers and peaks of CO2 emissions in 30 provinces in China during 1997 and 2020, considering COVID-19 effects. The results show that the energy structure has replaced the energy intensity as the main factor of emission reduction in 2020. The CO2 emission driving mechanism at the provincial level is different from that at the country level. The population restrains the CO2 emissions in Heilongjiang, Sichuan, and Guizhou. The energy structure increases CO2 emissions in Hainan, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang. The role of driving factors to CO2 emissions varies greatly among provinces. The population effect is strong in Shandong, Guangdong, and Henan. The economic effect is significant in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin. The energy intensity effect is remarkable in Shanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia. The energy structure effect is profound in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Henan. Based on our findings, China's CO2 emissions peak will occur in 2030 and 2025 under baseline and green development scenarios. Many provinces have already reached their peaks, including Chongqing, Yunnan, Beijing, Tianjin, Qinghai, Shanghai, Jilin, Hubei, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Sichuan, Anhui, Guizhou, and Henan. However, Xinjiang and Shanxi will not reach their peaks by 2030. Based on the findings, this paper put forward several policy implications.