Exploring the changes of energy-related carbon intensity in China: an extended Divisia index decomposition

Abstract

To gain a better understanding of the changes in carbon intensity of China, this study firstly adopted logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition analysis to decompose the carbon intensity into three driving factors, including emission coefficient effect, energy intensity effect and industrial structure effect. Then, the analysis was furtherly conducted to study the contributions of four economic sectors to the percent change in carbon intensity through each influencing factor by attribution analysis. The results illustrated that the carbon intensity dropped by 46.21 % from 1996 to 2012 mainly caused by the decrease in energy intensity, of which the industrial sector, transportation sector and commercial & service sector were the dominant contributors. The emission coefficient effect and industrial structure effect were equally important in terms of increasing carbon intensity, which principally due to the industrial sector and commercial & service sector. In addition, the energy efficiency of agricultural sector should be furtherly improved, and it is imperative to optimize the energy mix and industrial structure of the industrial sector and commercial & service sector. Therefore, more differentiated policies are urgently required to be implemented in different economic sectors to mitigate the China’s carbon intensity.