Changes in carbon intensity of China’s energy-intensive industries: a combined decomposition and attribution analysis

Abstract

There has been growing interest among researchers in factors influencing carbon emissions of energy-intensive industries in China due to the important roles they play. Such studies mainly focused on evaluating carbon emissions and identifying the contributing factors separately for each energy-intensive industry. Regarding energy-intensive industries as a whole and investigating the contribution of each industry to changes in carbon intensity have not yet been sufficiently addressed and quantified. In order to deeply understand this issue, this study employed the LMDI decomposition analysis to study driving forces (e.g., emission coefficient, energy intensity, and industrial structure) of carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries. Then, attribution analysis was further used to study the contribution of each energy-intensive industry to the percent change in carbon intensity through each impact factor. The results showed that the carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries dropped by 31.83% from 1996 to 2014. The energy intensity effect was largely responsible for this decrease, of which, five industries were the contributors except for the fuel-processing industry. The industrial structure effect also contributed to the decrease, and non-metallic industry and fuel-processing industry played important roles. However, the emission coefficient effect showed a slight impact on increasing carbon intensity, which principally due to chemical industry and power generation industry. The findings suggested that the adaptability and sensitivity of different energy-intensive industries to the implemented policies were various. Based on the results, differentiated and feasible policies related to energy intensity, industrial structure, and energy structure for energy-intensive industries were provided to further mitigate carbon intensity.