Exploring the changes and driving forces of water footprint in Central Asia: A global trade assessment

Abstract

Central Asia is a strategic geopolitical region, which has recently been identified to be on the verge of a water-related crisis. Yet, most studies addressing water-related issues across Central Asia have lacked multi-sectoral and cross-country perspectives. This study used the multi-region input−output model to quantify the water footprint in Central Asia as well as the STIRPAT technique to study its driving forces from 1995 to 2015. The results revealed that the production and consumption-based water footprints of Central Asia sharply increased, as proven by the growth rate of 12.69 × 109 m3/annum and 9.52 × 109 m3/annum, respectively. The water-intensive agriculture sector completely dominated Central Asia's water footprint. In addition, between 1995 and 2015, the volume of imported and exported water footprints in Central Asia increased. In terms of exports, the internal water footprint accounted for 3%–5%, whereas the external accounted for 95%–97%. With respect to imports, the internal water footprint dropped from 50% to 37%. Nevertheless, the gap between export and import volumes was approximately ten-fold, which revealed that international trade exacerbates Central Asia's water crisis. Furthermore, urbanisation was revealed to have significant positive effect on water footprint changes compared to population, gross domestic product (GDP) and water use efficiency in Central Asia. This study provides policy implications for promoting Central Asia's water resource management, as well as highlighting the driving forces of water footprint that need attention, resulting in cooperative water resource management to promote sustainable development.