Exploring regional land use dynamics under shared socioeconomic pathways: A case study in Inner Mongolia, China

Abstract

Land use change scenarios can contribute to the development of improved policies to tackle climate change. In this study, we developed an integrated modeling framework to simulate land use dynamics in Inner Mongolia, China under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) during 2015–2050. A computable general equilibrium of land use change model was developed to simulate the regional socio-economic effects on future land use demand. The Dynamics of Land System model was applied to simulate the spatial patterns of land use change. Land use change varied considerably among SSPs. Increased agricultural productivity reduced the demand for cultivated land. Increased livestock system efficiency and decreased animal product consumption reduced grassland demand, benefiting natural grassland recovery. Built-up land increased in all SSPs, with positive relation to GDP growth. Under SSP1, forest area, grassland, and built-up land increased by 19940 km² (12.05%), 9882 km² (1.88%), and 20844 km² (129.19%), respectively, while cultivated land decreased by 10995 km² (−9.80%). Grassland decreased considerably under SSP3 and SSP4, and distributed discretely, mainly concentrated on Xilin Gol League and northwestern Ulanqab. Built-up land sprawled considerably under SSP1 and SSP5, and was mainly concentrated in eastern Tongliao and northern Ordos. This integrated modeling framework provides an effective and reliable way to simulate regional land use dynamics under a range of alternative future pathways.