Exploring potential electric vehicle utilization: A computer simulation

Abstract

This study describes a computer simulation of electric vehicle (EV) usage based on conventional vehicle usage data and battery performance characteristics. A Monte Carlo technique was used to simulate the EV daily travel for the duration of the battery life. The vehicle usage data employed in this study refer to the least driven conventional vehicle in households owning two or more vehicles and include information on number of vehicle tours per day, tour distance, tour duration and the time between tours. (A vehicle tour is defined as a sequence of trips starting and ending at home.) The data reflect variations in vehicle use among different days of the week and different households. The specific set of battery performance parameters used as input to the simulation are (1) battery life is limited to 600 deep-discharge cycles; (2) maximum range of EV is 80 miles when the battery is new, and it decreases to 48 miles at the end of battery lifetime and (3) one hour of battery charging provides 10 miles of travel. Relative to the ability of the EV to meet the travel requirements of the “least used vehicle” in multiple vehicle households, simulations indicate that the EV could satisfy almost all (92 to 96%) of the tours but only 66 to 74% of the annual miles traveled.