Exploring new approaches to arms control in the 21st century

Abstract

A new approach to arms control is needed for the 21st century that calls for new thinking on strategic stability to take account of the evolution of a multipolar nuclear order and new technological developments that are blurring the distinction between conventional and nuclear weapons. In the past, bilateral arms control was based on numerical limits of missiles and delivery systems in categories defined by range and purpose. Now, a new framework is needed for strategic stability encompassing a global agreement to eliminate nuclear-armed cruise missiles, further reductions in strategic nuclear weapons and a range of trust-building and risk-reduction measures. The threat to the arms control regime serves to reinforce the importance of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons although the significance of this treaty remains to be seen. The nuclear weapons-possessor states need to reaffirm the 1987 declaration that “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” and develop new crisis management and risk reduction mechanisms, adapted to the changed geopolitical environment, to reduce the risk of a crisis escalating to the use of nuclear weapons.