Exploring Future Transport Demand in the United States

Abstract

This paper presents two scenarios for mobility in the United States in 2030 and describes the rigorous qualitative and quantitative methodology used to develop them. This research should be of interest to transportation agencies at all levels–-federal, state, and local–-because innovative approaches to dealing with uncertainty about the future of mobility in the United States are necessary for long-term strategic transportation planning. Decision makers in transportation policy and planning need robust information about how and how much Americans will travel; such information can be used to determine whether the U.S. roadway infrastructure will be adequate, whether existing funding sources will be sufficient, and how new circumstances will change mode shares (percentages of travelers using various types of transportation). Instead of trying to predict these situations, or extrapolate from existing trends, the research team used a scenario approach to explore probable mobility futures. Two scenarios, no free lunch and fueled and freewheeling, resulted. Data were based on expert opinions about the long-term future in five areas: demographics, economics, energy, transportation funding, and technology. These data were analyzed with cross-impact and cluster analysis to produce scenario frameworks from which scenario narratives were constructed. The scenarios allow legislators, public agencies, and private-sector entities to assess and understand how today's decisions might play out in the future.