Abstract
Vehicle electrification, an important method for reducing carbon emissions from road transport, has been promoted globally. In this study, we analyze how individuals adapt to this transition in transportation and its subsequent impact on urban structure. Considering the varying travel costs associated with electric and fuel vehicles, we analyze the dynamic choices of households concerning house locations and vehicle types in a two-dimensional monocentric city. A spatial equilibrium is developed to model the interactions between urban density, vehicle age and vehicle type. An agent-based microeconomic residential choice model dynamically coupled with a house rent market is developed to analyze household choices of home locations and vehicle energy types, considering vehicle ages and competition for public charging piles. Key findings from our proposed models show that the proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) peaks at over 50% by the end of the first scrappage period, accompanied by more than a 40% increase in commuting distance and time compared to the scenario with only fuel vehicles. Simulation experiments on a theoretical grid indicate that heterogeneity-induced residential segregation can lead to urban sprawl and congestion. Furthermore, households with EVs tend to be located farther from the city center, and an increase in EV ownership contributes to urban expansion. Our study provides insights into how individuals adapt to EV transitions and the resulting impacts on home locations and land use changes. It offers a novel perspective on the dynamic interactions between EV adoption and urban development.
Published Version
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