Abstract
The paper aims to examine the population ageing process in northeast China, typically perceived as a region experiencing dramatic demographic change and socio-economic slowdown that is much deeper and more significant compared to other regions. Using the 2000 and 2010 census data at the sub-regional level, the SEM (spatial error model) estimation suggests that at least seven socio-economic factors are associated with the evolution of the ageing pattern in northeast China, including birth rate, mortality, education, healthcare conditions, the level of economic development, urbanization, and population mobility. However, these associations vary according to time and space, which are further confirmed by the geographical weighted regression (GWR). These findings imply that there are complicated and diversified factors which may be associated with the deteriorating population ageing at the local level in northeast China. Therefore, the sustainable development of the northeast region may not be delivered by dichotomous policy interventions, such as the control of birth rate or mortality rate, as many of the previous studies have focused on; instead, the implementation of ageing policy shall be consistent and complementary with the principles of social benefits, for example, providing incentives for improving regional economic structures, or by policies aimed at building up an adequate “tolerant culture” for slowing down population outflows.
Highlights
Population ageing, among all other effects brought by demographic changes, has become a primary focus that attracts academics and policy markers’ attention
It is generally well documented that factors such as birth rate, mortality, or healthcare conditions are important determinants of population ageing, but our results show that their associations with population ageing are significantly weakened over a decade
Demonstration about associations between population ageing and socio-economic factors is likely to reveal that the local effects of a number of factors that are well documented in the ageing literature, such as birth rate, mortality, or healthcare conditions, were playing less important roles in affecting the ageing situation in many regions of northeast China, whereas the leading effect of the slow economic development accompanied with a population outflow was emerging
Summary
Population ageing, among all other effects brought by demographic changes, has become a primary focus that attracts academics and policy markers’ attention. Great differences in aims, stipulations, implementations, and context of regional ageing policies have not been considered, and not surprisingly, it remains unclear how the microscopic strategy and integration measures can be dynamically formulated in complicated socio-economic scenarios. In addressing these issues, the present study adopts comprehensive spatial models to understand the function and transmission mechanism of ageing at the sub-regional level in China. The findings suggest that the situation of population ageing aggravates over the period 2000–2010 in northeast China, and this phenomenon is prominent in developed areas such as Liaoning province.
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